Football · Norway Eliteserien · 20/09, 17:00

Prediction: Sandefjord vs IK Start

Team pages: Sandefjord · IK Start

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Sandefjord1.87

IK Start1.39

1X2

47% 25% 27%

Sandefjord Draw IK Start

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Sandefjord 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLWDDL

IK Start 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLLWLW

Head-to-head

Sandefjord 2–3–1 IK Start (6 last)

Sandefjord3-2IK Start
IK Start1-0Sandefjord
IK Start1-1Sandefjord
IK Start0-1Sandefjord
Sandefjord2-2IK Start
Sandefjord0-0IK Start

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sandefjord 1491 · IK Start 1501

	Sandefjord	Draw	IK Start
Our model	48%	25%	28%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sandefjord: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sandefjord	IK Start
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.1	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.04
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.74 ★
2	3.20 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.55

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 3.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:55 +5’	2.05	3.50	3.20
18:30 +9’	2.00▼	3.50	3.30▲
15:02 +11’	2.00	3.60▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:13 +19’	2.01	3.56	3.70
21:07 +50’	2.12▲	3.46▼	3.47▼
14:13 +12’	2.15▲	3.47▲	3.38▼
17:31 +67’	2.04▼	3.62▲	3.52▲
18:49 +173’	2.03▼	3.64▲	3.54▲
17:50 +100’	2.03	3.66▲	3.52▼
10:47 +60’	2.02▼	3.70▲	3.51▼
18:27 +70’	2.01▼	3.71▲	3.55▲
07:00 +40’	2.04▲	3.68▼	3.47▼
17:01 +251’	2.04	3.74▲	3.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sandefjord 2–3–1 IK Start

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Europe Friendlies	Sandefjord	3-2 HT 1-1	IK Start
05/03/23 Europe Friendlies	IK Start	1-0 HT 0-0	Sandefjord
02/05/21 Europe Friendlies	IK Start	1-1 HT 0-0	Sandefjord
24/10/20 Norway Eliteserien	IK Start	0-1 HT 0-0	Sandefjord
21/06/20 Norway Eliteserien	Sandefjord	2-2 HT 1-2	IK Start
09/08/19 Norway Division 1	Sandefjord	0-0 HT 0-0	IK Start

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	20	16	2	2	52	17	50
2	Viking FK	20	15	2	3	51	20	47
3	Molde	20	11	3	6	43	30	36
4	Tromso	20	10	5	5	37	27	35
5	Lillestrom	20	10	2	8	28	26	32
6	Rosenborg	20	9	3	8	36	29	30
7	Fredrikstad	20	8	3	9	24	31	27
8	SK Brann	20	8	2	10	37	31	26
9	Sarpsborg	21	6	7	8	24	29	25
10	KFUM	21	7	4	10	25	35	25
11	Ham-Kam	20	6	5	9	27	41	23
12	Valerenga	20	6	4	10	33	42	22
13	Sandefjord	20	5	5	10	18	27	20
14	Kristiansund BK	20	5	4	11	20	37	19
15	Aalesund	20	3	9	8	31	45	18
16	IK Start	20	4	4	12	22	41	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sandefjord	IK Start
Viking FK	1-1 D	0-3 L
SK Brann	0-0 D	2-0 W
KFUM	0-1 L	4-1 W
Fredrikstad	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: IK Start (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sandefjord

LDLLLLWDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-3	2	3	L
04/09	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
30/08	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
16/08	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
07/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
01/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	5	1	L
26/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
18/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
12/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
30/05	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	10	4	L

IK Start

WLLLWLLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
04/09	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	6	3	L
30/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	2-1	4-1	6	8	W
08/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	6	0	L
01/08	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-3	0-3	6	5	L
25/07	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
18/07	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
12/07	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
29/05	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
25/05	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-0	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sandefjord vs IK Start?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sandefjord win (47%). Probabilities: Sandefjord 47%, draw 25%, IK Start 27%.

How many goals are expected in Sandefjord vs IK Start?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Sandefjord 1.87 · IK Start 1.39), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs IK Start?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.