Football · Norway Eliteserien · 11/10, 19:15

Prediction: Lillestrom vs Molde

Team pages: Lillestrom · Molde

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

Lillestrom1.53

Molde1.94

1X2

30% 24% 46%

Lillestrom Draw Molde

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Lillestrom 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLDLWWL

Molde 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWWWWL

Head-to-head

Lillestrom 2–4 Molde (6 last)

Molde0-1Lillestrom
Lillestrom1-2Molde
Lillestrom1-2Molde
Molde3-0Lillestrom
Molde4-0Lillestrom
Lillestrom2-1Molde

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lillestrom 1522 · Molde 1560

	Lillestrom	Draw	Molde
Our model	30%	24%	46%
Market	30%	24%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Molde: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lillestrom	Molde
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	2.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	1.1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	2.6 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.90

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 02:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20
X	3.75 → 3.90▲	Pinn 4.10 ★
2	2.10 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.10

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 5.7% Pinnacle margin 3.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:58 +8’	2.90	3.75	2.10
20:09 +12’	3.00▲	3.80▲	2.10
01:39 +25’	3.20▲	3.90▲	2.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:17 +289’	3.03	4.02	2.12
19:15 +137’	3.06▲	4.07▲	2.14▲
23:01 +14’	3.18▲	4.09▲	2.08▼
23:57 +2’	3.15▼	4.10▲	2.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lillestrom 2–0–4 Molde

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Norway Eliteserien	Molde	0-1 HT 0-0	Lillestrom
06/10/24 Norway Cup	Lillestrom	1-2 HT 0-1	Molde
11/08/24 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	1-2 HT 1-1	Molde
07/07/24 Norway Eliteserien	Molde	3-0 HT 2-0	Lillestrom
12/11/23 Norway Eliteserien	Molde	4-0 HT 3-0	Lillestrom
23/04/23 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	2-1 HT 2-1	Molde

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Viking FK	22	17	2	3	56	20	53
2	Bodo/Glimt	22	17	2	3	56	20	53
3	Tromso	21	11	5	5	40	29	38
4	Molde	21	11	3	7	44	32	36
5	Rosenborg	22	10	4	8	40	31	34
6	Lillestrom	21	10	2	9	28	29	32
7	SK Brann	22	9	2	11	39	34	29
8	Fredrikstad	21	8	4	9	25	32	28
9	Sarpsborg	21	6	7	8	24	29	25
10	KFUM	21	7	4	10	25	35	25
11	Sandefjord	22	6	6	10	22	28	24
12	Valerenga	21	6	5	10	34	43	23
13	Ham-Kam	21	6	5	10	29	44	23
14	Aalesund	21	4	9	8	33	46	21
15	Kristiansund BK	22	5	4	13	22	43	19
16	IK Start	21	4	4	13	22	44	16

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lillestrom	Molde
Valerenga	2-0 W	4-3 W
SK Brann	2-1 W	1-2 L
KFUM	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lillestrom (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lillestrom

WWLLLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
12/09	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
05/09	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-1	0	2	W
30/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-2	1-4	10	3	L
15/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
09/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	8	7	L
31/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-4	2	2	L
22/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
18/07	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
11/07	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-0	2-0	3	4	W

Molde

DLWDLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	10	4	L
13/09	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	5-1	2	1	W
06/09	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	9	2	W
30/08	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	4-3	4-3	2	5	W
16/08	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-2	3	5	W
09/08	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	12	5	L
02/08	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-3	5	2	D
26/07	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-1	4-2	9	6	W
18/07	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	6	5	L
11/07	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	2-1	2-2	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lillestrom vs Molde?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Molde win (46%). Probabilities: Lillestrom 30%, draw 24%, Molde 46%.

How many goals are expected in Lillestrom vs Molde?

The model expects 3.47 goals (Lillestrom 1.53 · Molde 1.94), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Molde?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.