Football · Norway Eliteserien · 18/10, 17:00

Prediction: Sandefjord vs Lillestrom

Team pages: Sandefjord · Lillestrom

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Sandefjord1.5

Lillestrom1.52

1X2

37% 26% 37%

Sandefjord Draw Lillestrom

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sandefjord 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDDLWD

Lillestrom 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLWWLD

Head-to-head

Sandefjord 3–1–2 Lillestrom (6 last)

Lillestrom3-1Sandefjord
Lillestrom1-2Sandefjord
Lillestrom0-3Sandefjord
Sandefjord0-1Lillestrom
Lillestrom2-2Sandefjord
Sandefjord1-0Lillestrom

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sandefjord 1523 · Lillestrom 1508

	Sandefjord	Draw	Lillestrom
Our model	36%	26%	37%
Market	37%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sandefjord: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sandefjord	Lillestrom
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.7	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.3	2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.5	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.60

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.50▼	Pinn 2.65 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.65
2	2.38 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.58

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 3.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:33 +6’	2.60	3.60	2.38
21:27 +7’	2.50▼	3.60	2.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:03 +205’	2.76	3.62	2.44
02:37 +37’	2.70▼	3.62	2.49▲
23:48 +32’	2.63▼	3.62	2.56▲
17:04 +23’	2.64▲	3.65▲	2.60▲
19:56 +18’	2.65▲	3.65	2.58▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sandefjord 3–1–2 Lillestrom

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	3-1 HT 1-0	Sandefjord
23/01/26 Europe Friendlies	Lillestrom	1-2 HT 1-0	Sandefjord
23/11/24 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	0-3 HT 0-1	Sandefjord
21/04/24 Norway Eliteserien	Sandefjord	0-1 HT 0-0	Lillestrom
16/02/24 Europe Friendlies	Lillestrom	2-2 HT 0-1	Sandefjord
03/12/23 Norway Eliteserien	Sandefjord	1-0 HT 1-0	Lillestrom

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	23	18	2	3	58	20	56
2	Viking FK	22	17	2	3	56	20	53
3	Tromso	22	11	6	5	41	30	39
4	Molde	22	11	4	7	46	34	37
5	Rosenborg	22	10	4	8	40	31	34
6	Lillestrom	22	10	3	9	30	31	33
7	SK Brann	22	9	2	11	39	34	29
8	Fredrikstad	22	8	5	9	26	33	29
9	Sarpsborg	22	7	7	8	28	31	28
10	KFUM	22	8	4	10	27	36	28
11	Ham-Kam	23	7	5	11	33	48	26
12	Sandefjord	22	6	6	10	22	28	24
13	Aalesund	23	5	9	9	39	51	24
14	Valerenga	22	6	5	11	35	45	23
15	Kristiansund BK	23	5	4	14	23	47	19
16	IK Start	22	4	4	14	24	48	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sandefjord	Lillestrom
Rosenborg	1-1 D	0-2 L
Bodo/Glimt	2-3 L	0-4 L
Viking FK	1-1 D	0-3 L
SK Brann	0-0 D	2-1 W
KFUM	0-1 L	1-1 D
Fredrikstad	0-1 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sandefjord (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sandefjord

LLLLWDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
20/09	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
14/09	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-3	2	3	L
04/09	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
30/08	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
16/08	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
07/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
01/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	5	1	L
26/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
18/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	5	6	L

Lillestrom

WLLLDLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-2	2-2	7	4	D
20/09	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
12/09	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
05/09	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-1	0	2	W
30/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-2	1-4	10	3	L
15/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
09/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	8	7	L
31/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-4	2	2	L
22/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
18/07	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sandefjord win (37%). Probabilities: Sandefjord 37%, draw 26%, Lillestrom 37%.

How many goals are expected in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Sandefjord 1.5 · Lillestrom 1.52), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.