Football · Norway Eliteserien · 18/10, 17:00

Prediction: Molde vs IK Start

Team pages: Molde · IK Start

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.89Total

Molde2.72

IK Start1.17

1X2

69% 17% 13%

Molde Draw IK Start

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Molde 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLWWWWLD

IK Start 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWLWLL

Head-to-head

Molde 4–2–0 IK Start (6 last)

IK Start1-1Molde
Molde5-0IK Start
IK Start2-3Molde
IK Start1-3Molde
Molde3-1IK Start
Molde2-2IK Start

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Molde 1567 · IK Start 1490

	Molde	Draw	IK Start
Our model	69%	17%	13%
Market	69%	18%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.89 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Molde (rating 1567 vs 1490).
H2H favours Molde: 4-2-0.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Molde	IK Start
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.9	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.1	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.4	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.25

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.98

2 (+1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.86
2	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 7.85 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:25 +18’	1.33	5.25	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:07 +81’	1.35	5.70	7.30
11:47 +30’	1.35▼	5.69▼	7.36▲
13:41 +43’	1.37▲	5.52▼	6.96▼
20:51 +10’	1.35▼	5.68▲	7.36▲
12:15 +11’	1.33▼	5.85▲	7.80▲
08:58 +21’	1.32▼	5.73▼	7.59▼
17:05 +23’	1.33▲	5.84▲	7.79▲
19:57 +18’	1.33▼	5.85▲	7.81▲
23:50 +22’	1.32▼	5.86▲	7.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Molde 4–2–0 IK Start

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Norway Eliteserien	IK Start	1-1 HT 1-0	Molde
05/08/20 Norway Eliteserien	Molde	5-0 HT 1-0	IK Start
24/06/20 Norway Eliteserien	IK Start	2-3 HT 1-2	Molde
29/10/18 Norway Eliteserien	IK Start	1-3 HT 1-0	Molde
27/05/18 Norway Eliteserien	Molde	3-1 HT 1-1	IK Start
17/07/16 Norway Eliteserien	Molde	2-2 HT 1-1	IK Start

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	23	18	2	3	58	20	56
2	Viking FK	22	17	2	3	56	20	53
3	Tromso	22	11	6	5	41	30	39
4	Molde	22	11	4	7	46	34	37
5	Rosenborg	22	10	4	8	40	31	34
6	Lillestrom	22	10	3	9	30	31	33
7	SK Brann	22	9	2	11	39	34	29
8	Fredrikstad	22	8	5	9	26	33	29
9	Sarpsborg	22	7	7	8	28	31	28
10	KFUM	22	8	4	10	27	36	28
11	Ham-Kam	23	7	5	11	33	48	26
12	Sandefjord	22	6	6	10	22	28	24
13	Aalesund	23	5	9	9	39	51	24
14	Valerenga	22	6	5	11	35	45	23
15	Kristiansund BK	23	5	4	14	23	47	19
16	IK Start	22	4	4	14	24	48	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Molde	IK Start
Aalesund	1-2 L	0-2 L
Ham-Kam	5-1 W	2-4 L
KFUM	2-0 W	4-1 W
Kristiansund BK	1-2 L	2-1 W
SK Brann	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: IK Start (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Molde

LWDLWWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	2-1	2-2	6	4	D
19/09	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	10	4	L
13/09	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	5-1	2	1	W
06/09	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	9	2	W
30/08	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	4-3	4-3	2	5	W
16/08	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-2	3	5	W
09/08	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	12	5	L
02/08	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-3	5	2	D
26/07	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-1	4-2	9	6	W
18/07	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	6	5	L

IK Start

LLWLLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-4	5	0	L
20/09	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-3	4	5	L
13/09	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
04/09	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	6	3	L
30/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	2-1	4-1	6	8	W
08/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	6	0	L
01/08	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-3	0-3	6	5	L
25/07	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
18/07	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
12/07	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-2	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Molde vs IK Start?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Molde win (69%). Probabilities: Molde 69%, draw 17%, IK Start 13%.

How many goals are expected in Molde vs IK Start?

The model expects 3.89 goals (Molde 2.72 · IK Start 1.17), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Molde vs IK Start?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.