Football · Norway Eliteserien · 18/10, 17:00

Prediction: Valerenga vs SK Brann

Team pages: Valerenga · SK Brann

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

Valerenga1.88

SK Brann1.78

1X2

40% 24% 36%

Valerenga Draw SK Brann

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Valerenga 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLDLDLDL

SK Brann 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLLWL

Head-to-head

Valerenga 1–5 SK Brann (6 last)

SK Brann2-3Valerenga
SK Brann3-2Valerenga
Valerenga2-4SK Brann
SK Brann2-1Valerenga
SK Brann3-0Valerenga
Valerenga1-2SK Brann

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valerenga 1491 · SK Brann 1547

	Valerenga	Draw	SK Brann
Our model	40%	23%	36%
Market	40%	24%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Brann (rating 1491 vs 1547).
H2H favours SK Brann: 5-0-1.
High corners: 14.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valerenga	SK Brann
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.4	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.3	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 7	2.3 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.90

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 20:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.30▼	Pinn 2.41
X	3.80 → 3.90▲	Pinn 4.00
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.69 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 3.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:38 +5’	2.35	3.80	2.55
22:36 +1’	2.38▲	3.90▲	2.50▼
20:02 +12’	2.30▼	3.90	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:12 +29’	2.66	3.78	2.39
20:12 +49’	2.51▼	3.83▲	2.57▲
17:01 +30’	2.53▲	3.85▲	2.54▼
22:15 +22’	2.44▼	3.92▲	2.60▲
05:30 +14’	2.44	3.93▲	2.60
17:01 +27’	2.46▲	3.98▲	2.63▲
19:53 +21’	2.41▼	4.00▲	2.69▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valerenga 1–0–5 SK Brann

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Norway Eliteserien	SK Brann	2-3 HT 0-3	Valerenga
13/09/25 Norway Eliteserien	SK Brann	3-2 HT 1-1	Valerenga
03/05/25 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	2-4 HT 0-2	SK Brann
22/03/25 Europe Friendlies	SK Brann	2-1 HT 1-1	Valerenga
27/02/24 Europe Friendlies	SK Brann	3-0 HT 1-0	Valerenga
08/10/23 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	1-2 HT 1-1	SK Brann

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	23	18	2	3	58	20	56
2	Viking FK	22	17	2	3	56	20	53
3	Tromso	22	11	6	5	41	30	39
4	Molde	22	11	4	7	46	34	37
5	Rosenborg	22	10	4	8	40	31	34
6	Lillestrom	22	10	3	9	30	31	33
7	SK Brann	22	9	2	11	39	34	29
8	Fredrikstad	22	8	5	9	26	33	29
9	Sarpsborg	22	7	7	8	28	31	28
10	KFUM	22	8	4	10	27	36	28
11	Ham-Kam	23	7	5	11	33	48	26
12	Sandefjord	22	6	6	10	22	28	24
13	Aalesund	23	5	9	9	39	51	24
14	Valerenga	22	6	5	11	35	45	23
15	Kristiansund BK	23	5	4	14	23	47	19
16	IK Start	22	4	4	14	24	48	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valerenga	SK Brann
Lillestrom	0-2 L	1-2 L
Molde	3-4 L	2-1 W
Bodo/Glimt	1-2 L	2-1 W
Ham-Kam	0-3 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SK Brann (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valerenga

WWLLDLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	12	2	L
20/09	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
12/09	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
06/09	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-2	8	2	D
30/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	3-4	3-4	5	5	L
16/08	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	2-4	5-5	5	1	D
08/08	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	8	1	L
31/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
26/07	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	3-0	3-2	6	5	W
16/07	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	3-0	6-1	8	0	W

SK Brann

WWLWWDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	13	3	L
20/09	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
13/09	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
05/09	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	12	2	L
30/08	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
16/08	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	10	3	W
02/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-2	5	5	W
26/07	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-3	2-3	10	5	L
18/07	Molde Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
12/07	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-0	2-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valerenga vs SK Brann?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valerenga win (40%). Probabilities: Valerenga 40%, draw 24%, SK Brann 36%.

How many goals are expected in Valerenga vs SK Brann?

The model expects 3.66 goals (Valerenga 1.88 · SK Brann 1.78), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Valerenga vs SK Brann?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.