Football · Norway Eliteserien · 18/10, 14:30

Prediction: Sarpsborg vs Rosenborg

Team pages: Sarpsborg · Rosenborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Sarpsborg1.66

Rosenborg1.57

1X2

39% 25% 36%

Sarpsborg Draw Rosenborg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Sarpsborg 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLLDDDLW

Rosenborg 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWWWD

Head-to-head

Sarpsborg 2–3–1 Rosenborg (6 last)

Rosenborg2-1Sarpsborg
Rosenborg2-3Sarpsborg
Sarpsborg2-2Rosenborg
Rosenborg1-1Sarpsborg
Rosenborg1-1Sarpsborg
Sarpsborg4-1Rosenborg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sarpsborg 1518 · Rosenborg 1615

	Sarpsborg	Draw	Rosenborg
Our model	39%	25%	35%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rosenborg (rating 1518 vs 1615).
H2H favours Sarpsborg: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sarpsborg	Rosenborg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	2.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.8	4.3 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.70

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 21:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.35▼	Pinn 2.36
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.99 ★
2	2.40 → 2.60▲	Pinn 2.76

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 3.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:33 +2’	2.55	3.70	2.40
01:19 +2’	2.55	3.70	2.45▲
11:18 +3’	2.50▼	3.70	2.50▲
21:03 +8’	2.35▼	3.70	2.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:19 +185’	2.58	3.85	2.49
00:40 +39’	2.59▲	3.87▲	2.48▼
12:13 +3’	2.63▲	3.87	2.44▼
13:48 +34’	2.56▼	3.87	2.50▲
12:58 +30’	2.55▼	3.93▲	2.49▼
11:34 +64’	2.53▼	3.93	2.51▲
12:38 +19’	2.50▼	3.94▲	2.54▲
20:16 +54’	2.30▼	4.02▲	2.73▲
22:01 +69’	2.42▲	3.99▼	2.60▼
15:19 +70’	2.36▼	4.03▲	2.73▲
18:16 +102’	2.35▼	3.99▼	2.76▲
00:34 +36’	2.36▲	3.99	2.76

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarpsborg 2–3–1 Rosenborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Norway Eliteserien	Rosenborg	2-1 HT 1-1	Sarpsborg
05/10/25 Norway Eliteserien	Rosenborg	2-3 HT 0-1	Sarpsborg
18/07/25 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	2-2 HT 1-2	Rosenborg
25/06/25 Norway Cup	Rosenborg	1-1 HT 0-1	Sarpsborg
23/11/24 Norway Eliteserien	Rosenborg	1-1 HT 0-0	Sarpsborg
12/07/24 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	4-1 HT 3-0	Rosenborg

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	23	18	2	3	58	20	56
2	Viking FK	22	17	2	3	56	20	53
3	Tromso	22	11	6	5	41	30	39
4	Molde	22	11	4	7	46	34	37
5	Rosenborg	22	10	4	8	40	31	34
6	Lillestrom	22	10	3	9	30	31	33
7	SK Brann	22	9	2	11	39	34	29
8	Fredrikstad	22	8	5	9	26	33	29
9	Sarpsborg	22	7	7	8	28	31	28
10	KFUM	22	8	4	10	27	36	28
11	Ham-Kam	23	7	5	11	33	48	26
12	Sandefjord	22	6	6	10	22	28	24
13	Aalesund	23	5	9	9	39	51	24
14	Valerenga	22	6	5	11	35	45	23
15	Kristiansund BK	23	5	4	14	23	47	19
16	IK Start	22	4	4	14	24	48	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sarpsborg	Rosenborg
Fredrikstad	1-1 D	4-0 W
Tromso	0-0 D	5-3 W
Sandefjord	1-2 L	1-1 D
Viking FK	1-2 L	2-1 W
Ham-Kam	1-0 W	4-0 W
Kristiansund BK	0-0 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Rosenborg (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sarpsborg

DWDLLDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-0	4-2	6	3	W
18/09	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-2	1-3	11	3	L
13/09	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
06/09	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-2	7	2	D
30/08	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
16/08	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
08/08	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
02/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-3	4	2	D
26/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
18/07	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	8	4	D

Rosenborg

WWLWWLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
19/09	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-1	6	1	W
12/09	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	4-0	5-3	4	5	W
05/09	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	4-0	6	2	W
30/08	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-4	2	2	L
14/08	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	9	0	W
09/08	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
02/08	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-3	12	5	L
27/07	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	2-0	4-0	10	1	W
18/07	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sarpsborg vs Rosenborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarpsborg win (39%). Probabilities: Sarpsborg 39%, draw 25%, Rosenborg 36%.

How many goals are expected in Sarpsborg vs Rosenborg?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Sarpsborg 1.66 · Rosenborg 1.57), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sarpsborg vs Rosenborg?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.