Football · Norway Eliteserien · 08/11, 17:00

Prediction: Sandefjord vs Molde

Team pages: Sandefjord · Molde

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

Sandefjord1.42

Molde2.18

1X2

24% 22% 54%

Sandefjord Draw Molde

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Sandefjord 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDLWDLLW

Molde 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLDWWL

Head-to-head

Sandefjord 4–1–1 Molde (6 last)

Molde2-1Sandefjord
Molde1-3Sandefjord
Sandefjord3-0Molde
Molde0-1Sandefjord
Sandefjord3-1Molde
Sandefjord2-2Molde

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sandefjord 1490 · Molde 1578

	Sandefjord	Draw	Molde
Our model	24%	22%	54%
Market	24%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Molde (rating 1490 vs 1578).
H2H favours Sandefjord: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sandefjord	Molde
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	3.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	1.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.6	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.90

X4.33

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.90▲	Pinn 3.96
X	4.20 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.68 ★
2	1.70 → 1.73▲	Pinn 1.76

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 3.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:16 +1’	3.80	4.20	1.70
15:15 +3’	3.90▲	4.33▲	1.73▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +19’	4.12	4.49	1.71
14:06 +15’	3.97▼	4.41▼	1.76▲
22:55 +45’	3.97	4.46▲	1.75▼
09:56 +43’	3.97	4.50▲	1.74▼
17:02 +33’	4.01▲	4.56▲	1.76▲
03:06 +12’	4.00▼	4.54▼	1.76▲
04:14	4.00	4.59▲	1.76▼
05:05 +13’	3.97▼	4.64▲	1.77▲
06:11 +6’	3.97	4.69▲	1.76▼
07:36 +35’	3.96▼	4.68▼	1.76▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sandefjord 4–1–1 Molde

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	Molde	2-1 HT 1-0	Sandefjord
19/10/25 Norway Eliteserien	Molde	1-3 HT 1-2	Sandefjord
06/04/25 Norway Eliteserien	Sandefjord	3-0 HT 2-0	Molde
19/10/24 Norway Eliteserien	Molde	0-1 HT 0-0	Sandefjord
05/05/24 Norway Eliteserien	Sandefjord	3-1 HT 0-1	Molde
12/08/23 Norway Eliteserien	Sandefjord	2-2 HT 1-0	Molde

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Viking FK	25	19	2	4	64	26	59
2	Bodo/Glimt	25	19	2	4	61	23	59
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	53	32	46
4	Molde	25	13	4	8	59	39	43
5	Lillestrom	25	13	3	9	36	33	42
6	Tromso	25	11	7	7	43	38	40
7	SK Brann	25	10	2	13	45	42	32
8	Valerenga	25	9	5	11	43	46	32
9	Sarpsborg	25	8	7	10	32	39	31
10	KFUM	25	8	7	10	32	41	31
11	Fredrikstad	25	8	5	12	29	44	29
12	Sandefjord	25	7	6	12	26	34	27
13	Ham-Kam	25	7	6	12	35	53	27
14	Aalesund	25	5	9	11	43	57	24
15	Kristiansund BK	25	6	5	14	29	51	23
16	IK Start	26	5	4	17	27	59	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sandefjord	Molde
Aalesund	4-3 W	1-2 L
IK Start	0-1 L	6-1 W
Lillestrom	0-2 L	2-2 D
SK Brann	0-0 D	2-3 L
KFUM	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Molde (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sandefjord

LWDDLWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	2-2	4-3	7	8	W
25/10	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
18/10	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
10/10	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
20/09	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
14/09	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-3	2	3	L
04/09	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
30/08	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
16/08	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
07/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	5	6	L

Molde

LWWWWLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-3	7	7	L
25/10	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	3-1	5-1	5	3	W
18/10	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	2-0	6-1	5	4	W
11/10	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	2-1	2-2	6	4	D
19/09	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	10	4	L
13/09	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	5-1	2	1	W
06/09	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	9	2	W
30/08	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	4-3	4-3	2	5	W
16/08	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-2	3	5	W
09/08	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	12	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sandefjord vs Molde?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Molde win (54%). Probabilities: Sandefjord 24%, draw 22%, Molde 54%.

How many goals are expected in Sandefjord vs Molde?

The model expects 3.6 goals (Sandefjord 1.42 · Molde 2.18), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Molde?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.