Football · Norway Eliteserien · 08/11, 19:15

Prediction: Fredrikstad vs SK Brann

Team pages: Fredrikstad · SK Brann

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Fredrikstad1.54

SK Brann1.63

1X2

35% 25% 40%

Fredrikstad Draw SK Brann

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Fredrikstad 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLDDDLLL

SK Brann 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWDLLWLLLW

Head-to-head

Fredrikstad 2–4 SK Brann (6 last)

SK Brann3-1Fredrikstad
SK Brann1-0Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad3-0SK Brann
Fredrikstad0-4SK Brann
SK Brann0-2Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad1-3SK Brann

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fredrikstad 1512 · SK Brann 1552

	Fredrikstad	Draw	SK Brann
Our model	35%	26%	39%
Market	36%	25%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Brann (rating 1512 vs 1552).
H2H favours SK Brann: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fredrikstad	SK Brann
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.5	2.3 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.80

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 08:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.74
X	3.60 → 3.80▲	Pinn 3.98 ★
2	2.35 → 2.35	Pinn 2.41

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 3.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:11 +7’	2.60	3.60	2.35
10:16 +7’	2.55▼	3.60	2.40▲
14:43 +39’	2.63▲	3.70▲	2.40
08:11 +2’	2.63	3.80▲	2.35▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +1’	2.66	3.86	2.43
17:15 +17’	2.68▲	3.78▼	2.45▲
22:17 +26’	2.60▼	3.80▲	2.51▲
19:16 +140’	2.63▲	3.84▲	2.54▲
23:32 +21’	2.65▲	3.85▲	2.52▼
01:25 +1’	2.74▲	3.85	2.44▼
05:14 +5’	2.73▼	3.90▲	2.43▼
06:00 +22’	2.71▼	3.99▲	2.41▼
06:50 +22’	2.72▲	3.96▼	2.42▲
07:38 +35’	2.72	4.02▲	2.41▼
10:50 +27’	2.73▲	3.98▼	2.41
11:24 +82’	2.74▲	3.98	2.41

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fredrikstad 2–0–4 SK Brann

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	SK Brann	3-1 HT 1-0	Fredrikstad
28/09/25 Norway Eliteserien	SK Brann	1-0 HT 1-0	Fredrikstad
29/03/25 Norway Eliteserien	Fredrikstad	3-0 HT 2-0	SK Brann
18/08/24 Norway Eliteserien	Fredrikstad	0-4 HT 0-1	SK Brann
07/04/24 Norway Eliteserien	SK Brann	0-2 HT 0-1	Fredrikstad
22/10/22 Norway Division 1	Fredrikstad	1-3 HT 0-1	SK Brann

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Viking FK	25	19	2	4	64	26	59
2	Bodo/Glimt	25	19	2	4	61	23	59
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	53	32	46
4	Molde	25	13	4	8	59	39	43
5	Lillestrom	25	13	3	9	36	33	42
6	Tromso	25	11	7	7	43	38	40
7	SK Brann	25	10	2	13	45	42	32
8	Valerenga	25	9	5	11	43	46	32
9	Sarpsborg	25	8	7	10	32	39	31
10	KFUM	25	8	7	10	32	41	31
11	Fredrikstad	25	8	5	12	29	44	29
12	Sandefjord	25	7	6	12	26	34	27
13	Ham-Kam	25	7	6	12	35	53	27
14	Aalesund	25	5	9	11	43	57	24
15	Kristiansund BK	25	6	5	14	29	51	23
16	IK Start	26	5	4	17	27	59	19

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fredrikstad	SK Brann
Rosenborg	0-3 L	3-2 W
Molde	1-5 L	3-2 W
Viking FK	2-3 L	0-2 L
Valerenga	1-1 D	1-3 L
Bodo/Glimt	1-2 L	2-1 W
Lillestrom	4-1 W	2-3 L
IK Start	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Fredrikstad (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fredrikstad

WWWLDDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
25/10	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-3	1-5	9	3	L
17/10	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	2-1	2-3	0	5	L
11/10	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
20/09	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
13/09	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
04/09	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
30/08	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	2-1	4-1	3	3	W
16/08	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
08/08	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	4	0	W

SK Brann

WWDLLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-2	4	7	W
25/10	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-3	8	4	L
18/10	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-3	8	2	L
09/10	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	13	3	L
20/09	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
13/09	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
05/09	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	12	2	L
30/08	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
16/08	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	10	3	W
02/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-2	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fredrikstad vs SK Brann?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SK Brann win (40%). Probabilities: Fredrikstad 35%, draw 25%, SK Brann 40%.

How many goals are expected in Fredrikstad vs SK Brann?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Fredrikstad 1.54 · SK Brann 1.63), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs SK Brann?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.