Football · Norway Eliteserien · 08/11, 17:00

Prediction: Lillestrom vs Aalesund

Team pages: Lillestrom · Aalesund

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.87Total

Lillestrom2.34

Aalesund1.53

1X2

55% 21% 24%

Lillestrom Draw Aalesund

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Lillestrom 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLDWWW

Aalesund 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DDLWLWLWLL

Head-to-head

Lillestrom 3–2–1 Aalesund (6 last)

Aalesund1-3Lillestrom
Lillestrom5-1Aalesund
Aalesund2-2Lillestrom
Aalesund1-1Lillestrom
Lillestrom5-1Aalesund
Aalesund2-1Lillestrom

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lillestrom 1516 · Aalesund 1475

	Lillestrom	Draw	Aalesund
Our model	55%	21%	24%
Market	55%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lillestrom (rating 1516 vs 1475).
H2H favours Lillestrom: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lillestrom	Aalesund
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	2.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	1.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.5	2.5 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.33

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 06:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.73▼	Pinn 1.73
X	4.10 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.74 ★
2	3.70 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.10

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6% Pinnacle margin 3.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:10 +4’	1.75	4.10	3.70
15:09 +9’	1.80▲	4.20▲	3.80▲
05:16 +2’	1.75▼	4.33▲	3.90▲
05:58 +19’	1.73▼	4.33	4.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +19’	1.81	4.43	3.69
08:12 +3’	1.80▼	4.49▲	3.70▲
22:21 +14’	1.83▲	4.46▼	3.63▼
07:00 +20’	1.82▼	4.48▲	3.63
17:04 +30’	1.84▲	4.54▲	3.67▲
20:48 +29’	1.77▼	4.65▲	3.87▲
22:34 +23’	1.77	4.64▼	3.86▼
05:01 +17’	1.76▼	4.70▲	3.96▲
06:58 +12’	1.73▼	4.74▲	4.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lillestrom 3–2–1 Aalesund

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Norway Eliteserien	Aalesund	1-3 HT 1-1	Lillestrom
10/08/25 Norway Division 1	Lillestrom	5-1 HT 2-0	Aalesund
31/03/25 Norway Division 1	Aalesund	2-2 HT 2-2	Lillestrom
03/09/23 Norway Eliteserien	Aalesund	1-1 HT 0-1	Lillestrom
19/07/23 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	5-1 HT 2-1	Aalesund
06/11/22 Norway Eliteserien	Aalesund	2-1 HT 1-1	Lillestrom

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Viking FK	25	19	2	4	64	26	59
2	Bodo/Glimt	25	19	2	4	61	23	59
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	53	32	46
4	Molde	25	13	4	8	59	39	43
5	Lillestrom	25	13	3	9	36	33	42
6	Tromso	25	11	7	7	43	38	40
7	SK Brann	25	10	2	13	45	42	32
8	Valerenga	25	9	5	11	43	46	32
9	Sarpsborg	25	8	7	10	32	39	31
10	KFUM	25	8	7	10	32	41	31
11	Fredrikstad	25	8	5	12	29	44	29
12	Sandefjord	25	7	6	12	26	34	27
13	Ham-Kam	25	7	6	12	35	53	27
14	Aalesund	25	5	9	11	43	57	24
15	Kristiansund BK	25	6	5	14	29	51	23
16	IK Start	26	5	4	17	27	59	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lillestrom	Aalesund
IK Start	1-0 W	2-0 W
Sandefjord	2-0 W	3-4 L
Molde	2-2 D	2-1 W
Viking FK	0-3 L	1-2 L
Valerenga	2-0 W	5-5 D
KFUM	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lillestrom

LDLWWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
25/10	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-2	3	4	W
18/10	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
11/10	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-2	2-2	7	4	D
20/09	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
12/09	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
05/09	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-1	0	2	W
30/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-2	1-4	10	3	L
15/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
09/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	8	7	L

Aalesund

DDLWLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	2-2	3-4	7	8	L
25/10	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
17/10	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-1	4-1	8	4	W
11/10	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-4	8	3	L
19/09	Molde Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
13/09	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-2	1-2	4	6	L
04/09	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
30/08	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
16/08	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	4-2	5-5	10	1	D
09/08	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lillestrom vs Aalesund?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lillestrom win (55%). Probabilities: Lillestrom 55%, draw 21%, Aalesund 24%.

How many goals are expected in Lillestrom vs Aalesund?

The model expects 3.87 goals (Lillestrom 2.34 · Aalesund 1.53), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Aalesund?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.