Football · Norway Eliteserien · 08/11, 17:00
Prediction: Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg
Team pages: Ham-Kam · Sarpsborg
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.35Total
Ham-Kam1.55
Sarpsborg1.8
1X2
Ham-Kam
Draw
Sarpsborg
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Ham-Kam
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Sarpsborg
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ham-Kam
0–1–5
Sarpsborg
(6 last)
- Sarpsborg1-0Ham-Kam
- Sarpsborg2-2Ham-Kam
- Ham-Kam2-3Sarpsborg
- Ham-Kam1-3Sarpsborg
- Sarpsborg4-0Ham-Kam
- Sarpsborg2-1Ham-Kam
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ham-Kam 1467 · Sarpsborg 1497
| Ham-Kam | Draw | Sarpsborg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 25% | 43% |
| Market | 32% | 25% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sarpsborg: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ham-Kam | Sarpsborg | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.7 | 1.4 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.3 | 2.8 / 7.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ham-Kam 0–1–5 Sarpsborg
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 Norway Eliteserien | Sarpsborg | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Ham-Kam |
| 26/03/26 Europe Friendlies | Sarpsborg | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Ham-Kam |
| 13/02/26 Europe Friendlies | Ham-Kam | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Sarpsborg |
| 31/08/25 Norway Eliteserien | Ham-Kam | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Sarpsborg |
| 11/05/25 Norway Eliteserien | Sarpsborg | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Ham-Kam |
| 07/03/25 Europe Friendlies | Sarpsborg | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Ham-Kam |
Standings · Norway Eliteserien
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking FK | 25 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 64 | 26 | 59 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 25 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 61 | 23 | 59 |
| 3 | Rosenborg | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 53 | 32 | 46 |
| 4 | Molde | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 59 | 39 | 43 |
| 5 | Lillestrom | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 36 | 33 | 42 |
| 6 | Tromso | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 43 | 38 | 40 |
| 7 | SK Brann | 25 | 10 | 2 | 13 | 45 | 42 | 32 |
| 8 | Valerenga | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 43 | 46 | 32 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 32 | 39 | 31 |
| 10 | KFUM | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 32 | 41 | 31 |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 44 | 29 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 26 | 34 | 27 |
| 13 | Ham-Kam | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 35 | 53 | 27 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 43 | 57 | 24 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 51 | 23 |
| 16 | IK Start | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 27 | 59 | 19 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ham-Kam | Sarpsborg |
|---|---|---|
| KFUM | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Rosenborg | 0-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Tromso | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Kristiansund BK | 2-2 D | 2-4 L |
| Aalesund | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ham-Kam
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | KFUM Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 24/10 | Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 17/10 | Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 11/10 | IK Start Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 20/09 | Tromso Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 13/09 | Molde Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-5 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | SK Brann Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | Aalesund Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
Sarpsborg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien |
0-3 | 2-4 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 25/10 | Aalesund Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 2-1 | 20 | 4 | W |
| 18/10 | Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 11/10 | Aalesund Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/09 | KFUM Norway Eliteserien |
1-2 | 1-3 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Tromso Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sarpsborg win (43%). Probabilities: Ham-Kam 32%, draw 25%, Sarpsborg 43%.
How many goals are expected in Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg?
The model expects 3.35 goals (Ham-Kam 1.55 · Sarpsborg 1.8), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.