Football · Norway Eliteserien · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga

Team pages: Kristiansund BK · Valerenga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.91Total

Kristiansund BK1.7

Valerenga2.21

1X2

29% 23% 49%

Kristiansund BK Draw Valerenga

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Kristiansund BK 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDWLLLLDW

Valerenga 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDLDLWWW

Head-to-head

Kristiansund BK 2–1–3 Valerenga (6 last)

Valerenga3-1Kristiansund BK
Valerenga3-3Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK0-2Valerenga
Valerenga0-2Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK0-2Valerenga
Kristiansund BK3-2Valerenga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kristiansund BK 1465 · Valerenga 1520

	Kristiansund BK	Draw	Valerenga
Our model	29%	22%	49%
Market	28%	23%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 3.91 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerenga (rating 1465 vs 1520).
H2H favours Valerenga: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kristiansund BK	Valerenga
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.6	2.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	2.7 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.25

X4.00

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 2.12 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 4.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:07 +5’	3.25	4.00	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:28 +8’	3.18	3.91	2.05
20:32 +20’	3.22▲	3.96▲	2.07▲
23:07 +4’	3.14▼	3.91▼	2.12▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kristiansund BK 2–1–3 Valerenga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	3-1 HT 1-0	Kristiansund BK
22/11/25 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	3-3 HT 0-1	Kristiansund BK
27/04/25 Norway Eliteserien	Kristiansund BK	0-2 HT 0-0	Valerenga
10/12/23 Norway Eliteserien Play-Offs	Valerenga	0-2 HT 0-0	Kristiansund BK
06/12/23 Norway Eliteserien Play-Offs	Kristiansund BK	0-2 HT 0-0	Valerenga
11/09/22 Norway Eliteserien	Kristiansund BK	3-2 HT 1-1	Valerenga

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Viking FK	25	19	2	4	64	26	59
2	Bodo/Glimt	25	19	2	4	61	23	59
3	Molde	25	13	4	8	59	39	43
4	Rosenborg	25	13	4	8	49	31	43
5	Lillestrom	25	13	3	9	36	33	42
6	Tromso	25	11	7	7	43	38	40
7	SK Brann	25	10	2	13	45	42	32
8	Valerenga	25	9	5	11	43	46	32
9	Sarpsborg	25	8	7	10	32	39	31
10	KFUM	25	8	7	10	32	41	31
11	Fredrikstad	25	8	5	12	29	44	29
12	Sandefjord	25	7	6	12	26	34	27
13	Ham-Kam	25	7	6	12	35	53	27
14	Aalesund	25	5	9	11	43	57	24
15	Kristiansund BK	25	6	5	14	29	51	23
16	IK Start	25	5	4	16	26	55	19

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kristiansund BK	Valerenga
Sarpsborg	4-2 W	2-2 D
KFUM	2-2 D	1-2 L
Aalesund	1-4 L	5-5 D
Bodo/Glimt	1-3 L	1-0 W
Tromso	2-0 W	4-0 W
Fredrikstad	0-1 L	1-1 D
Molde	2-1 W	3-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Valerenga (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kristiansund BK

WLDWLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	3-0	4-2	2	5	W
25/10	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-2	4	5	D
17/10	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-4	4	4	L
10/10	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-3	0	2	L
19/09	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-3	4	1	L
13/09	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	1-5	1-8	5	1	L
06/09	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
30/08	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
16/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	10	4	L
09/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	1	5	W

Valerenga

LDLDLDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	2-0	4-0	3	7	W
24/10	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
18/10	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-1	4	2	W
12/10	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	12	2	L
20/09	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
12/09	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
06/09	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-2	8	2	D
30/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	3-4	3-4	5	5	L
16/08	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	2-4	5-5	5	1	D
08/08	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	8	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Valerenga win (49%). Probabilities: Kristiansund BK 29%, draw 23%, Valerenga 49%.

How many goals are expected in Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga?

The model expects 3.91 goals (Kristiansund BK 1.7 · Valerenga 2.21), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.