Football · Norway Eliteserien · 08/11, 14:30

Prediction: Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt

Team pages: Tromso · Bodo/Glimt

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.89Total

Tromso1.19

Bodo/Glimt2.7

1X2

14% 18% 68%

Tromso Draw Bodo/Glimt

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Tromso 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWDDLL

Bodo/Glimt 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWLW

Head-to-head

Tromso 2–2–2 Bodo/Glimt (6 last)

Bodo/Glimt5-0Tromso
Bodo/Glimt1-1Tromso
Tromso2-1Bodo/Glimt
Tromso0-0Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt4-0Tromso
Bodo/Glimt0-2Tromso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tromso 1478 · Bodo/Glimt 1578

	Tromso	Draw	Bodo/Glimt
Our model	14%	18%	69%
Market	13%	19%	68%

Estimated total (ours) 3.89 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bodo/Glimt (rating 1478 vs 1578).
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tromso	Bodo/Glimt
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.3	2.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4	3.8 / 7.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

17.00

X5.00

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.90

2 (-1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 7.75
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.56 ★
2	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:05 +12’	7.00	5.00	1.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:58 +25’	7.03	5.31	1.39
09:57 +14’	7.75▲	5.56▲	1.35▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tromso 2–2–2 Bodo/Glimt

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	Bodo/Glimt	5-0 HT 1-0	Tromso
09/08/25 Norway Eliteserien	Bodo/Glimt	1-1 HT 1-1	Tromso
16/05/25 Norway Eliteserien	Tromso	2-1 HT 0-1	Bodo/Glimt
19/10/24 Norway Eliteserien	Tromso	0-0 HT 0-0	Bodo/Glimt
16/05/24 Norway Eliteserien	Bodo/Glimt	4-0 HT 2-0	Tromso
30/07/23 Norway Eliteserien	Bodo/Glimt	0-2 HT 0-1	Tromso

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Viking FK	25	19	2	4	64	26	59
2	Bodo/Glimt	25	19	2	4	61	23	59
3	Molde	25	13	4	8	59	39	43
4	Rosenborg	25	13	4	8	49	31	43
5	Lillestrom	25	13	3	9	36	33	42
6	Tromso	25	11	7	7	43	38	40
7	SK Brann	25	10	2	13	45	42	32
8	Valerenga	25	9	5	11	43	46	32
9	Sarpsborg	25	8	7	10	32	39	31
10	KFUM	25	8	7	10	32	41	31
11	Fredrikstad	25	8	5	12	29	44	29
12	Sandefjord	25	7	6	12	26	34	27
13	Ham-Kam	25	7	6	12	35	53	27
14	Aalesund	25	5	9	11	43	57	24
15	Kristiansund BK	25	6	5	14	29	51	23
16	IK Start	25	5	4	16	26	55	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tromso	Bodo/Glimt
Valerenga	0-4 L	0-1 L
Viking FK	1-3 L	3-2 W
Fredrikstad	1-1 D	2-1 W
Ham-Kam	3-2 W	2-0 W
Rosenborg	3-5 L	4-2 W
Kristiansund BK	0-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bodo/Glimt (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tromso

WLDLLWDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-4	2	7	L
25/10	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-3	1-3	6	4	L
18/10	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
11/10	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
20/09	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-2	7	1	W
12/09	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-4	3-5	4	5	L
06/09	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
30/08	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
16/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-3	2	5	L
02/08	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-1	6-2	4	1	W

Bodo/Glimt

WWWWWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	3-2	3-2	5	5	W
24/10	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-1	10	5	L
17/10	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
10/10	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-1	5	2	W
20/09	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
14/09	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-2	10	3	W
04/09	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
30/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	4-2	12	2	W
08/08	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	8	1	W
31/07	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	2-0	4-0	10	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bodo/Glimt win (68%). Probabilities: Tromso 14%, draw 18%, Bodo/Glimt 68%.

How many goals are expected in Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?

The model expects 3.89 goals (Tromso 1.19 · Bodo/Glimt 2.7), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.