Football · Norway Eliteserien · 07/11, 18:00

Prediction: Rosenborg vs IK Start

Team pages: Rosenborg · IK Start

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.87Total

Rosenborg2.91

IK Start0.96

1X2

76% 15% 9%

Rosenborg Draw IK Start

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Rosenborg 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWDWWW

IK Start 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLLWL

Head-to-head

Rosenborg 5–1–0 IK Start (6 last)

IK Start0-3Rosenborg
Rosenborg2-1IK Start
Rosenborg1-0IK Start
IK Start0-0Rosenborg
IK Start0-1Rosenborg
Rosenborg2-1IK Start

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rosenborg 1613 · IK Start 1454

	Rosenborg	Draw	IK Start
Our model	76%	15%	9%
Market	76%	16%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rosenborg (rating 1613 vs 1454).
H2H favours Rosenborg: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rosenborg	IK Start
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1	1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.2	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 5.9	2.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.20

X5.75

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.98

2 (+2)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.20▼	Pinn 1.23
X	5.50 → 5.75▲	Pinn 7.09 ★
2	9.50 → 11.00▲	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.8% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:07 +3’	1.25	5.50	9.50
23:01 +12’	1.20▼	5.75▲	11.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:18 +13’	1.28	6.24	9.27
21:17 +5’	1.25▼	6.54▲	10.13▲
00:14 +2’	1.23▼	7.17▲	10.34▲
09:54 +15’	1.25▲	6.94▼	9.75▼
11:03 +8’	1.25▼	6.98▲	9.79▲
14:09 +7’	1.22▼	7.37▲	10.86▲
16:58 +23’	1.23▲	7.09▼	10.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rosenborg 5–1–0 IK Start

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Norway Eliteserien	IK Start	0-3 HT 0-1	Rosenborg
24/02/26 Europe Friendlies	Rosenborg	2-1 HT 2-0	IK Start
01/11/20 Norway Eliteserien	Rosenborg	1-0 HT 0-0	IK Start
16/07/20 Norway Eliteserien	IK Start	0-0 HT 0-0	Rosenborg
11/11/18 Norway Eliteserien	IK Start	0-1 HT 0-1	Rosenborg
01/11/18 Norway Cup	Rosenborg	2-1 HT 0-1	IK Start

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Viking FK	25	19	2	4	64	26	59
2	Bodo/Glimt	25	19	2	4	61	23	59
3	Molde	25	13	4	8	59	39	43
4	Rosenborg	25	13	4	8	49	31	43
5	Lillestrom	25	13	3	9	36	33	42
6	Tromso	25	11	7	7	43	38	40
7	SK Brann	25	10	2	13	45	42	32
8	Valerenga	25	9	5	11	43	46	32
9	Sarpsborg	25	8	7	10	32	39	31
10	KFUM	25	8	7	10	32	41	31
11	Fredrikstad	25	8	5	12	29	44	29
12	Sandefjord	25	7	6	12	26	34	27
13	Ham-Kam	25	7	6	12	35	53	27
14	Aalesund	25	5	9	11	43	57	24
15	Kristiansund BK	25	6	5	14	29	51	23
16	IK Start	25	5	4	16	26	55	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rosenborg	IK Start
Fredrikstad	3-0 W	0-1 L
Ham-Kam	3-0 W	2-4 L
Sandefjord	1-1 D	1-0 W
Viking FK	2-1 W	0-3 L
Lillestrom	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Rosenborg (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rosenborg

WWLWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
24/10	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-0	3-0	7	5	W
18/10	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	2-0	3-0	8	5	W
10/10	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
19/09	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-1	6	1	W
12/09	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	4-0	5-3	4	5	W
05/09	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	4-0	6	2	W
30/08	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-4	2	2	L
14/08	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	9	0	W
09/08	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	6	7	W

IK Start

LLWLWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
25/10	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
18/10	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-6	6	4	L
11/10	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-4	5	0	L
20/09	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-3	4	5	L
13/09	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
04/09	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	6	3	L
30/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	2-1	4-1	6	8	W
08/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	6	0	L
01/08	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-3	0-3	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rosenborg vs IK Start?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rosenborg win (76%). Probabilities: Rosenborg 76%, draw 15%, IK Start 9%.

How many goals are expected in Rosenborg vs IK Start?

The model expects 3.87 goals (Rosenborg 2.91 · IK Start 0.96), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs IK Start?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.