Football · Norway Eliteserien · 26/07, 17:00

Prediction: KFUM vs Molde

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

KFUM1.16

Molde1.39

1X2

31% 27% 42%

KFUM Draw Molde

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

KFUM 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Molde 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

KFUM 2–2–2 Molde (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KFUM 1449 · Molde 1484

	KFUM	Draw	Molde
Our model	30%	29%	41%
Market	32%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KFUM	Molde
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.6	2.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.60

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.94 ★
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11	2.90	3.60	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:11	3.05	3.78	2.19
08:10	3.09▲	3.83▲	2.15▼
09:11 +1’	3.23▲	3.99▲	2.04▼
10:11	2.94▼	3.87▼	2.22▲
11:14	3.10▲	3.94▲	2.12▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KFUM 2–2–2 Molde

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Europe Friendlies	Molde	5-1 HT 3-0	KFUM
17/08/25 Norway Eliteserien	KFUM	0-0 HT 0-0	Molde
29/06/25 Norway Eliteserien	Molde	2-3 HT 0-2	KFUM
23/09/24 Norway Eliteserien	KFUM	1-1 HT 0-0	Molde
20/07/24 Norway Eliteserien	Molde	2-3 HT 1-2	KFUM
01/06/17 Norway Cup	KFUM	1-2 HT 1-0	Molde

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tromso	15	9	4	2	26	15	31
2	Viking FK	12	10	0	2	31	12	30
3	Bodo/Glimt	13	9	2	2	31	11	29
4	Lillestrom	13	8	1	4	21	12	25
5	Molde	13	6	2	5	21	17	20
6	SK Brann	14	6	1	7	28	22	19
7	Ham-Kam	12	5	3	4	20	22	18
8	Sarpsborg	13	5	3	5	14	16	18
9	Valerenga	13	5	2	6	19	22	17
10	Rosenborg	13	4	3	6	15	18	15
11	Sandefjord	13	4	3	6	13	17	15
12	Fredrikstad	13	4	2	7	15	23	14
13	KFUM	13	3	3	7	13	21	12
14	Aalesund	13	2	6	5	18	28	12
15	Kristiansund BK	13	3	3	7	11	21	12
16	IK Start	14	1	4	9	14	33	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KFUM	Molde
Bodo/Glimt	0-2 L	1-4 L
Tromso	0-0 D	0-2 L
Rosenborg	2-0 W	1-2 L
SK Brann	1-2 L	1-2 L
Sarpsborg	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: KFUM (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

KFUM

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
12/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	6	1	L
04/07	Vendsyssel FF Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
21/06	Molde Europe Friendlies	0-3	1-5	2	2	L
29/05	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
25/05	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-0	9	2	W
16/05	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	0	5	L
10/05	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
03/05	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-2	3	7	D
26/04	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	1	6	W

Molde

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	6	5	L
11/07	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
05/07	Rosenborg Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-2	4	8	L
28/06	Bodo/Glimt Europe Friendlies	0-2	1-4	4	2	L
21/06	KFUM Europe Friendlies	3-0	5-1	9	2	W
30/05	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
25/05	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	8	2	L
16/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
10/05	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
04/05	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KFUM vs Molde?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Molde win (42%). Probabilities: KFUM 31%, draw 27%, Molde 42%.

How many goals are expected in KFUM vs Molde?

The model expects 2.55 goals (KFUM 1.16 · Molde 1.39), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in KFUM vs Molde?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.