Football · Norway Eliteserien · 30/08, 17:00

Prediction: Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK

Team pages: Ham-Kam · Kristiansund BK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Ham-Kam1.56

Kristiansund BK1.05

1X2

48% 27% 25%

Ham-Kam Draw Kristiansund BK

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ham-Kam 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDDLLLWDL

Kristiansund BK 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDLLWL

Head-to-head

Ham-Kam 3–2–1 Kristiansund BK (6 last)

Kristiansund BK1-1Ham-Kam
Kristiansund BK2-1Ham-Kam
Kristiansund BK1-3Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam2-1Kristiansund BK
Ham-Kam1-0Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK1-1Ham-Kam

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ham-Kam 1498 · Kristiansund BK 1455

	Ham-Kam	Draw	Kristiansund BK
Our model	48%	28%	24%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ham-Kam (rating 1498 vs 1455).
H2H favours Ham-Kam: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ham-Kam	Kristiansund BK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	0.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	2.1 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.60
2	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.19 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:28 +1’	1.90	3.50	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:29	1.87	3.60	4.19

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ham-Kam 3–2–1 Kristiansund BK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	Kristiansund BK	1-1 HT 0-0	Ham-Kam
18/02/26 Europe Friendlies	Kristiansund BK	2-1 HT 1-1	Ham-Kam
26/10/25 Norway Eliteserien	Kristiansund BK	1-3 HT 0-0	Ham-Kam
30/03/25 Norway Eliteserien	Ham-Kam	2-1 HT 1-1	Kristiansund BK
27/10/24 Norway Eliteserien	Ham-Kam	1-0 HT 0-0	Kristiansund BK
05/05/24 Norway Eliteserien	Kristiansund BK	1-1 HT 1-1	Ham-Kam

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	17	13	2	2	43	12	41
2	Viking FK	17	13	1	3	40	17	40
3	Tromso	17	10	4	3	34	20	34
4	Molde	17	8	3	6	32	26	27
5	Lillestrom	17	8	2	7	23	21	26
6	SK Brann	17	8	1	8	36	27	25
7	Rosenborg	17	7	3	7	25	22	24
8	Fredrikstad	17	7	2	8	18	27	23
9	Sarpsborg	17	6	4	7	20	23	22
10	Ham-Kam	17	6	4	7	24	30	22
11	Valerenga	17	6	3	8	28	34	21
12	KFUM	17	5	4	8	19	27	19
13	Sandefjord	17	5	3	9	15	23	18
14	Kristiansund BK	17	4	3	10	15	27	15
15	Aalesund	17	2	9	6	27	41	15
16	IK Start	17	2	4	11	16	38	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ham-Kam	Kristiansund BK
Valerenga	3-0 W	1-3 L
Sarpsborg	0-1 L	0-0 D
Lillestrom	2-0 W	2-1 W
Fredrikstad	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ham-Kam (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ham-Kam

LWDDLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
09/08	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
31/07	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
26/07	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
22/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	1	1	L
18/07	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-4	1	0	L
12/07	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-2	7	4	D
29/05	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
25/05	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
16/05	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	7	3	L

Kristiansund BK

LWLLLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	10	4	L
09/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	1	5	W
02/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	3	1	L
25/07	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
18/07	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/07	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-3	7	1	L
29/05	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
24/05	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
20/05	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	3	11	W
16/05	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ham-Kam win (48%). Probabilities: Ham-Kam 48%, draw 27%, Kristiansund BK 25%.

How many goals are expected in Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Ham-Kam 1.56 · Kristiansund BK 1.05), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.