Football · Norway Eliteserien · 30/08, 17:00

Prediction: IK Start vs KFUM

Team pages: IK Start · KFUM

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

IK Start1.47

KFUM1.29

1X2

40% 28% 32%

IK Start Draw KFUM

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

IK Start 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLWLL

KFUM 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLLWWD

Head-to-head

IK Start 3–2–1 KFUM (6 last)

KFUM2-0IK Start
IK Start1-1KFUM
KFUM2-2IK Start
IK Start5-4KFUM
IK Start3-2KFUM
KFUM0-1IK Start

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IK Start 1439 · KFUM 1480

	IK Start	Draw	KFUM
Our model	40%	28%	32%
Market	40%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KFUM (rating 1439 vs 1480).
H2H favours IK Start: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IK Start	KFUM
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.3	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	2.9 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	3.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.76 ★
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.96

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:29 +1’	2.30	3.40	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:29	2.25	3.76	2.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IK Start 3–2–1 KFUM

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Norway Eliteserien	KFUM	2-0 HT 0-0	IK Start
12/11/23 Norway Division 1	IK Start	1-1 HT 1-1	KFUM
03/05/23 Norway Division 1	KFUM	2-2 HT 1-0	IK Start
16/02/23 Europe Friendlies	IK Start	5-4 HT 1-3	KFUM
03/10/22 Norway Division 1	IK Start	3-2 HT 1-1	KFUM
11/07/22 Norway Division 1	KFUM	0-1 HT 0-1	IK Start

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	17	13	2	2	43	12	41
2	Viking FK	17	13	1	3	40	17	40
3	Tromso	17	10	4	3	34	20	34
4	Molde	17	8	3	6	32	26	27
5	Lillestrom	17	8	2	7	23	21	26
6	SK Brann	17	8	1	8	36	27	25
7	Rosenborg	17	7	3	7	25	22	24
8	Fredrikstad	17	7	2	8	18	27	23
9	Sarpsborg	17	6	4	7	20	23	22
10	Ham-Kam	17	6	4	7	24	30	22
11	Valerenga	17	6	3	8	28	34	21
12	KFUM	17	5	4	8	19	27	19
13	Sandefjord	17	5	3	9	15	23	18
14	Kristiansund BK	17	4	3	10	15	27	15
15	Aalesund	17	2	9	6	27	41	15
16	IK Start	17	2	4	11	16	38	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IK Start	KFUM
Viking FK	0-3 L	0-2 L
Kristiansund BK	2-1 W	2-1 W
Rosenborg	0-3 L	2-0 W
SK Brann	1-2 L	1-2 L
Bodo/Glimt	1-4 L	0-2 L
Tromso	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: KFUM (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IK Start

DLLWLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	6	0	L
01/08	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-3	0-3	6	5	L
25/07	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
18/07	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
12/07	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
29/05	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
25/05	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-0	5	1	W
20/05	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	1-2	1-4	1	1	L
16/05	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	3-1	3-6	2	5	L
03/05	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	3	5	D

KFUM

LLWDLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
07/08	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
02/08	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-1	3	1	W
26/07	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-4	3	6	L
18/07	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
12/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	6	1	L
29/05	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
25/05	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-0	9	2	W
16/05	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	0	5	L
10/05	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IK Start vs KFUM?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IK Start win (40%). Probabilities: IK Start 40%, draw 28%, KFUM 32%.

How many goals are expected in IK Start vs KFUM?

The model expects 2.76 goals (IK Start 1.47 · KFUM 1.29), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in IK Start vs KFUM?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.