Football · Norway Eliteserien · 30/08, 17:00
Prediction: Tromso vs Sarpsborg
Team pages: Tromso · Sarpsborg
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.96Total
Tromso1.97
Sarpsborg0.99
1X2
Tromso
Draw
Sarpsborg
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Tromso
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Sarpsborg
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tromso
4–1–1
Sarpsborg
(6 last)
- Sarpsborg0-1Tromso
- Tromso4-0Sarpsborg
- Sarpsborg0-1Tromso
- Sarpsborg3-3Tromso
- Sarpsborg2-1Tromso
- Sarpsborg1-2Tromso
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tromso 1567 · Sarpsborg 1503
| Tromso | Draw | Sarpsborg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 23% | 17% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tromso (rating 1567 vs 1503).
- H2H favours Tromso: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tromso | Sarpsborg | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.8 | 1.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4 | 2.4 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tromso 4–1–1 Sarpsborg
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Norway Eliteserien | Sarpsborg | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Tromso |
| 02/11/25 Norway Eliteserien | Tromso | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Sarpsborg |
| 25/05/25 Norway Eliteserien | Sarpsborg | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Tromso |
| 13/02/25 Europe Friendlies | Sarpsborg | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Tromso |
| 01/12/24 Norway Eliteserien | Sarpsborg | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Tromso |
| 21/06/24 Europe Friendlies | Sarpsborg | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Tromso |
Standings · Norway Eliteserien
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 12 | 41 |
| 2 | Viking FK | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 17 | 40 |
| 3 | Tromso | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 34 |
| 4 | Molde | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 26 | 27 |
| 5 | Lillestrom | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 26 |
| 6 | SK Brann | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 27 | 25 |
| 7 | Rosenborg | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 22 | 24 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 23 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 22 |
| 10 | Ham-Kam | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 30 | 22 |
| 11 | Valerenga | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 34 | 21 |
| 12 | KFUM | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 27 | 19 |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 23 | 18 |
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 27 | 15 |
| 15 | Aalesund | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 27 | 41 | 15 |
| 16 | IK Start | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 10 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tromso | Sarpsborg |
|---|---|---|
| Molde | 2-3 L | 3-3 D |
| Ham-Kam | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Valerenga | 4-0 W | 2-3 L |
| SK Brann | 0-5 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tromso
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Molde Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Aalesund Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 6-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | KFUM Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/05 | Aalesund Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 0-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Molde Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | IK Start Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 29/04 | SK Brann Norway Eliteserien |
0-3 | 0-5 | 6 | 4 | L |
Sarpsborg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Molde Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 18/07 | Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 12/07 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | SK Brann Norway Eliteserien |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Molde Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
2-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tromso vs Sarpsborg?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tromso win (59%). Probabilities: Tromso 59%, draw 23%, Sarpsborg 17%.
How many goals are expected in Tromso vs Sarpsborg?
The model expects 2.96 goals (Tromso 1.97 · Sarpsborg 0.99), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Sarpsborg?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.