Football · Norway Eliteserien · 29/08, 18:00

Prediction: Viking FK vs Aalesund

Team pages: Viking FK · Aalesund

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.01Total

Viking FK3.01

Aalesund1.01

1X2

77% 14% 9%

Viking FK Draw Aalesund

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Viking FK 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWDWWL

Aalesund 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDDLDLDD

Head-to-head

Viking FK 3–1–2 Aalesund (6 last)

Aalesund1-1Viking FK
Viking FK1-2Aalesund
Aalesund0-1Viking FK
Aalesund0-4Viking FK
Viking FK3-1Aalesund
Aalesund2-1Viking FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Viking FK 1559 · Aalesund 1535

	Viking FK	Draw	Aalesund
Our model	77%	14%	9%
Market	77%	14%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 4.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Viking FK: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Viking FK	Aalesund
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.1	2 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/0/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.6 / 7.3	2.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.50

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.85

2 (+2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Pinn 1.28 ★
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:50 +1’	1.20	6.50	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:51 +1’	1.28	6.44	8.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Viking FK 3–1–2 Aalesund

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Norway Eliteserien	Aalesund	1-1 HT 0-1	Viking FK
18/03/26 Norway Cup	Viking FK	1-2 HT 1-0	Aalesund
25/06/25 Norway Cup	Aalesund	0-1 HT 0-0	Viking FK
26/11/23 Norway Eliteserien	Aalesund	0-4 HT 0-2	Viking FK
24/07/23 Norway Eliteserien	Viking FK	3-1 HT 1-1	Aalesund
02/10/22 Norway Eliteserien	Aalesund	2-1 HT 0-0	Viking FK

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	17	13	2	2	43	12	41
2	Viking FK	17	13	1	3	40	17	40
3	Tromso	17	10	4	3	34	20	34
4	Molde	17	8	3	6	32	26	27
5	Lillestrom	17	8	2	7	23	21	26
6	SK Brann	17	8	1	8	36	27	25
7	Rosenborg	17	7	3	7	25	22	24
8	Fredrikstad	17	7	2	8	18	27	23
9	Sarpsborg	17	6	4	7	20	23	22
10	Ham-Kam	17	6	4	7	24	30	22
11	Valerenga	17	6	3	8	28	34	21
12	KFUM	17	5	4	8	19	27	19
13	Sandefjord	17	5	3	9	15	23	18
14	Kristiansund BK	17	4	3	10	15	27	15
15	Aalesund	17	2	9	6	27	41	15
16	IK Start	17	2	4	11	16	38	10

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Viking FK

WWWLWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	6	0	L
08/08	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	11	5	W
01/08	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	3-0	3-0	5	5	W
26/07	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	10	7	D
22/07	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	9	6	W
18/07	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
12/07	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
24/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
16/05	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-3	6-3	12	5	W
10/05	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	6	3	W

Aalesund

WWDDDLDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	4-2	5-5	10	1	D
09/08	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
02/08	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-6	9	1	L
26/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
16/07	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-3	1-6	7	0	L
11/07	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-2	2-2	2	4	D
29/05	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-2	8	2	D
25/05	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
20/05	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
16/05	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-2	0	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Viking FK vs Aalesund?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Viking FK win (77%). Probabilities: Viking FK 77%, draw 14%, Aalesund 9%.

How many goals are expected in Viking FK vs Aalesund?

The model expects 4.01 goals (Viking FK 3.01 · Aalesund 1.01), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Viking FK vs Aalesund?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.