Football · Norway Eliteserien · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Valerenga vs Molde

Team pages: Valerenga · Molde

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.19Total

Valerenga2.06

Molde2.13

1X2

37% 23% 40%

Valerenga Draw Molde

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Valerenga 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWLLD

Molde 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLWDLW

Head-to-head

Valerenga 0–1–5 Molde (6 last)

Molde5-1Valerenga
Molde4-1Valerenga
Valerenga2-3Molde
Molde0-0Valerenga
Valerenga0-4Molde
Valerenga1-2Molde

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valerenga 1499 · Molde 1530

	Valerenga	Draw	Molde
Our model	38%	22%	41%
Market	36%	24%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 4.19 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Molde: 5-1-0.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valerenga	Molde
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.3	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.4	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.2	2.9 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.2	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.80

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.71 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.91
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:38 +6’	2.55	3.80	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:44	2.71	3.91	2.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valerenga 0–1–5 Molde

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Norway Eliteserien	Molde	5-1 HT 1-1	Valerenga
28/09/25 Norway Eliteserien	Molde	4-1 HT 2-1	Valerenga
22/06/25 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	2-3 HT 2-1	Molde
19/08/23 Norway Eliteserien	Molde	0-0 HT 0-0	Valerenga
15/07/23 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	0-4 HT 0-3	Molde
13/11/22 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	1-2 HT 1-0	Molde

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	17	13	2	2	43	12	41
2	Viking FK	17	13	1	3	40	17	40
3	Tromso	17	10	4	3	34	20	34
4	Molde	17	8	3	6	32	26	27
5	Lillestrom	17	8	2	7	23	21	26
6	SK Brann	17	8	1	8	36	27	25
7	Rosenborg	17	7	3	7	25	22	24
8	Fredrikstad	17	7	2	8	18	27	23
9	Sarpsborg	17	6	4	7	20	23	22
10	Ham-Kam	17	6	4	7	24	30	22
11	Valerenga	17	6	3	8	28	34	21
12	KFUM	17	5	4	8	19	27	19
13	Sandefjord	17	5	3	9	15	23	18
14	Kristiansund BK	17	4	3	10	15	27	15
15	Aalesund	17	2	9	6	27	41	15
16	IK Start	17	2	4	11	16	38	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valerenga	Molde
Aalesund	5-5 D	2-2 D
SK Brann	3-2 W	1-2 L
Tromso	0-4 L	3-2 W
Kristiansund BK	3-1 W	1-2 L
Sarpsborg	3-2 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Valerenga (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valerenga

LWLWLWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	2-4	5-5	5	1	D
08/08	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	8	1	L
31/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
26/07	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	3-0	3-2	6	5	W
16/07	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	3-0	6-1	8	0	W
11/07	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-3	0-4	7	2	L
29/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-1	5	2	W
25/05	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	7	1	L
16/05	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	2-2	3-2	7	1	W
08/05	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	6	4	L

Molde

LWLWDLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-2	3	5	W
09/08	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	12	5	L
02/08	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-3	5	2	D
26/07	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-1	4-2	9	6	W
18/07	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	6	5	L
11/07	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
30/05	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
25/05	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	8	2	L
16/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
10/05	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valerenga vs Molde?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Molde win (40%). Probabilities: Valerenga 37%, draw 23%, Molde 40%.

How many goals are expected in Valerenga vs Molde?

The model expects 4.19 goals (Valerenga 2.06 · Molde 2.13), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Molde?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.