Football · Norway Eliteserien · 18/09, 19:00

Prediction: Sarpsborg vs KFUM

Team pages: Sarpsborg · KFUM

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Sarpsborg1.6

KFUM1.03

1X2

49% 27% 23%

Sarpsborg Draw KFUM

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sarpsborg 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDLLDD

KFUM 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWDLLW

Head-to-head

Sarpsborg 3–1–2 KFUM (6 last)

KFUM1-0Sarpsborg
Sarpsborg2-1KFUM
KFUM1-3Sarpsborg
KFUM1-1Sarpsborg
KFUM1-2Sarpsborg
Sarpsborg0-2KFUM

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sarpsborg: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sarpsborg	KFUM
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.8	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.79

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:24

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.60
X	4.15 → 4.15	Pinn 4.15
2	5.06 → 5.06	Pinn 5.06

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:58 +26’	1.60	4.15	5.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarpsborg 3–1–2 KFUM

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Norway Eliteserien	KFUM	1-0 HT 1-0	Sarpsborg
25/10/25 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	2-1 HT 2-0	KFUM
21/04/25 Norway Eliteserien	KFUM	1-3 HT 0-2	Sarpsborg
23/02/25 Europe Friendlies	KFUM	1-1 HT 1-0	Sarpsborg
03/11/24 Norway Eliteserien	KFUM	1-2 HT 1-0	Sarpsborg
21/04/24 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	0-2 HT 0-2	KFUM

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	19	15	2	2	49	15	47
2	Viking FK	19	14	2	3	43	19	44
3	Tromso	20	10	5	5	37	27	35
4	Molde	19	10	3	6	38	29	33
5	Lillestrom	20	10	2	8	28	26	32
6	Rosenborg	20	9	3	8	36	29	30
7	SK Brann	19	8	2	9	37	29	26
8	Fredrikstad	19	8	2	9	23	30	26
9	Sarpsborg	19	6	6	7	22	25	24
10	Ham-Kam	19	6	5	8	26	36	23
11	Valerenga	20	6	4	10	33	42	22
12	Sandefjord	19	5	5	9	16	24	20
13	Kristiansund BK	19	5	4	10	19	29	19
14	KFUM	19	5	4	10	20	33	19
15	Aalesund	19	3	9	7	30	43	18
16	IK Start	19	3	4	12	20	41	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sarpsborg	KFUM
Tromso	0-0 D	0-0 D
Sandefjord	1-2 L	1-0 W
Molde	3-3 D	0-2 L
Kristiansund BK	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: KFUM (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sarpsborg

WWWDWDLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-2	7	2	D
30/08	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
16/08	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
08/08	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
02/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-3	4	2	D
26/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
18/07	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
12/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
29/05	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
25/05	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	2	2	W

KFUM

DLLLWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	2-1	2-1	6	6	W
06/09	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
30/08	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-2	1-4	7	8	L
15/08	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
07/08	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
02/08	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-1	3	1	W
26/07	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-4	3	6	L
18/07	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
12/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	6	1	L
29/05	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sarpsborg vs KFUM?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarpsborg win (49%). Probabilities: Sarpsborg 49%, draw 27%, KFUM 23%.

How many goals are expected in Sarpsborg vs KFUM?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Sarpsborg 1.6 · KFUM 1.03), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sarpsborg vs KFUM?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.