Football · Norway Eliteserien · 11/10, 14:30

Prediction: Fredrikstad vs Tromso

Team pages: Fredrikstad · Tromso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Fredrikstad1.34

Tromso1.51

1X2

33% 27% 40%

Fredrikstad Draw Tromso

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Fredrikstad 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWWLDD

Tromso 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWWLDLLW

Head-to-head

Fredrikstad 0–2–3 Tromso (5 last)

Tromso4-0Fredrikstad
Tromso0-0Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad0-1Tromso
Tromso3-0Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad0-0Tromso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fredrikstad 1539 · Tromso 1549

	Fredrikstad	Draw	Tromso
Our model	32%	27%	40%
Market	33%	27%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tromso: 3-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fredrikstad	Tromso
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	2.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.1	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.40

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.55
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.45 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:46 +6’	2.80	3.40	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:17 +575’	2.79	3.55	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fredrikstad 0–2–3 Tromso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Norway Eliteserien	Tromso	4-0 HT 1-0	Fredrikstad
02/08/25 Norway Eliteserien	Tromso	0-0 HT 0-0	Fredrikstad
29/06/25 Norway Eliteserien	Fredrikstad	0-1 HT 0-1	Tromso
29/05/24 Norway Eliteserien	Tromso	3-0 HT 2-0	Fredrikstad
25/05/24 Norway Eliteserien	Fredrikstad	0-0 HT 0-0	Tromso

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Viking FK	21	16	2	3	54	20	50
2	Bodo/Glimt	21	16	2	3	53	19	50
3	Tromso	21	11	5	5	40	29	38
4	Molde	21	11	3	7	44	32	36
5	Rosenborg	21	10	3	8	39	30	33
6	Lillestrom	21	10	2	9	28	29	32
7	SK Brann	21	9	2	10	39	32	29
8	Fredrikstad	21	8	4	9	25	32	28
9	Sarpsborg	21	6	7	8	24	29	25
10	KFUM	21	7	4	10	25	35	25
11	Sandefjord	21	6	5	10	21	27	23
12	Valerenga	21	6	5	10	34	43	23
13	Ham-Kam	21	6	5	10	29	44	23
14	Aalesund	21	4	9	8	33	46	21
15	Kristiansund BK	21	5	4	12	21	40	19
16	IK Start	21	4	4	13	22	44	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fredrikstad	Tromso
Valerenga	1-1 D	4-0 W
Sarpsborg	1-1 D	0-0 D
Kristiansund BK	1-0 W	0-2 L
Rosenborg	0-4 L	3-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tromso (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fredrikstad

LLLWWWWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
13/09	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
04/09	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
30/08	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	2-1	4-1	3	3	W
16/08	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
08/08	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	4	0	W
01/08	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
27/07	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-4	3	1	L
17/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	0	5	L
11/07	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-2	8	4	L

Tromso

DDWWWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-2	7	1	W
12/09	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-4	3-5	4	5	L
06/09	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
30/08	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
16/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-3	2	5	L
02/08	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-1	6-2	4	1	W
18/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	4-1	5	0	W
11/07	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	3-0	4-0	4	2	W
29/05	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
25/05	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fredrikstad vs Tromso?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tromso win (40%). Probabilities: Fredrikstad 33%, draw 27%, Tromso 40%.

How many goals are expected in Fredrikstad vs Tromso?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Fredrikstad 1.34 · Tromso 1.51), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Tromso?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.