Football · Norway Eliteserien · 11/10, 17:00
Prediction: Aalesund vs Sarpsborg
Team pages: Aalesund · Sarpsborg
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.19Total
Aalesund1.59
Sarpsborg1.59
1X2
Aalesund
Draw
Sarpsborg
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Aalesund
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Sarpsborg
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Aalesund
2–4
Sarpsborg
(6 last)
- Aalesund3-2Sarpsborg
- Sarpsborg3-1Aalesund
- Aalesund1-3Sarpsborg
- Sarpsborg1-2Aalesund
- Aalesund0-1Sarpsborg
- Sarpsborg4-0Aalesund
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aalesund 1510 · Sarpsborg 1523
| Aalesund | Draw | Sarpsborg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Market | 38% | 25% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sarpsborg: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aalesund | Sarpsborg | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2.6 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.6 | 1.8 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aalesund 2–0–4 Sarpsborg
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/23 Norway Eliteserien | Aalesund | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Sarpsborg |
| 29/05/23 Norway Eliteserien | Sarpsborg | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Aalesund |
| 11/09/22 Norway Eliteserien | Aalesund | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Sarpsborg |
| 22/05/22 Norway Eliteserien | Sarpsborg | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Aalesund |
| 13/09/20 Norway Eliteserien | Aalesund | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sarpsborg |
| 02/08/20 Norway Eliteserien | Sarpsborg | 4-0 HT 0-0 | Aalesund |
Standings · Norway Eliteserien
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking FK | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 54 | 20 | 50 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 53 | 19 | 50 |
| 3 | Tromso | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 29 | 38 |
| 4 | Molde | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 44 | 32 | 36 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 30 | 33 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 29 | 32 |
| 7 | SK Brann | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 32 | 29 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 32 | 28 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 29 | 25 |
| 10 | KFUM | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 25 | 35 | 25 |
| 11 | Sandefjord | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 27 | 23 |
| 12 | Valerenga | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 34 | 43 | 23 |
| 13 | Ham-Kam | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 44 | 23 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 46 | 21 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 40 | 19 |
| 16 | IK Start | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 44 | 16 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Aalesund | Sarpsborg |
|---|---|---|
| Molde | 2-1 W | 3-3 D |
| KFUM | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Viking FK | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Valerenga | 5-5 D | 2-2 D |
| Ham-Kam | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Tromso | 2-6 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 3 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aalesund
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Molde Norway Eliteserien |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | KFUM Norway Eliteserien |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 04/09 | IK Start Norway Eliteserien |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/08 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
4-2 | 5-5 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 09/08 | Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | Tromso Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 2-6 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 26/07 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 16/07 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
0-3 | 1-6 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Molde Norway Eliteserien |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
Sarpsborg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | KFUM Norway Eliteserien |
1-2 | 1-3 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Tromso Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Molde Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 18/07 | Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 12/07 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aalesund vs Sarpsborg?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Aalesund win (37%). Probabilities: Aalesund 37%, draw 25%, Sarpsborg 37%.
How many goals are expected in Aalesund vs Sarpsborg?
The model expects 3.19 goals (Aalesund 1.59 · Sarpsborg 1.59), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Sarpsborg?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.