Football · Norway Eliteserien · 30/08, 14:30

Prediction: Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg

Team pages: Bodo/Glimt · Rosenborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.71Total

Bodo/Glimt2.63

Rosenborg1.08

1X2

70% 17% 13%

Bodo/Glimt Draw Rosenborg

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Bodo/Glimt 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWWWW

Rosenborg 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Bodo/Glimt 2–3–1 Rosenborg (6 last)

Rosenborg2-2Bodo/Glimt
Rosenborg1-1Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt4-0Rosenborg
Bodo/Glimt2-3Rosenborg
Rosenborg1-3Bodo/Glimt
Rosenborg1-1Bodo/Glimt

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bodo/Glimt 1639 · Rosenborg 1556

	Bodo/Glimt	Draw	Rosenborg
Our model	70%	18%	13%
Market	70%	17%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bodo/Glimt (rating 1639 vs 1556).
H2H favours Bodo/Glimt: 2-3-1.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bodo/Glimt	Rosenborg
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 0.5	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.2	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	90/10/0%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 7.1	3.7 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0.2	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.82

2 (+1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Pinn 1.34
X	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 5.80 ★
2	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 7.37

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +5’	1.30	5.50	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:27	1.34	5.80	7.37

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bodo/Glimt 2–3–1 Rosenborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	Rosenborg	2-2 HT 1-1	Bodo/Glimt
21/09/25 Norway Eliteserien	Rosenborg	1-1 HT 0-1	Bodo/Glimt
24/05/25 Norway Eliteserien	Bodo/Glimt	4-0 HT 3-0	Rosenborg
28/10/24 Norway Eliteserien	Bodo/Glimt	2-3 HT 1-1	Rosenborg
27/04/24 Norway Eliteserien	Rosenborg	1-3 HT 0-2	Bodo/Glimt
17/09/23 Norway Eliteserien	Rosenborg	1-1 HT 1-1	Bodo/Glimt

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	17	13	2	2	43	12	41
2	Viking FK	17	13	1	3	40	17	40
3	Tromso	17	10	4	3	34	20	34
4	Molde	17	8	3	6	32	26	27
5	Lillestrom	17	8	2	7	23	21	26
6	SK Brann	17	8	1	8	36	27	25
7	Rosenborg	17	7	3	7	25	22	24
8	Fredrikstad	17	7	2	8	18	27	23
9	Sarpsborg	17	6	4	7	20	23	22
10	Ham-Kam	17	6	4	7	24	30	22
11	Valerenga	17	6	3	8	28	34	21
12	KFUM	17	5	4	8	19	27	19
13	Sandefjord	17	5	3	9	15	23	18
14	Kristiansund BK	17	4	3	10	15	27	15
15	Aalesund	17	2	9	6	27	41	15
16	IK Start	17	2	4	11	16	38	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bodo/Glimt	Rosenborg
Lillestrom	4-0 W	2-0 W
Fredrikstad	1-0 W	4-0 W
KFUM	2-0 W	0-2 L
SK Brann	3-1 W	2-3 L
IK Start	4-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Bodo/Glimt (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bodo/Glimt

WWWDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	8	1	W
31/07	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	2-0	4-0	10	2	W
26/07	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
22/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	10	1	W
17/07	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	12	5	W
12/07	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
29/05	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
24/05	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	2-0	3-1	6	1	W
20/05	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	2-1	4-1	5	1	W
16/05	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	1-0	5-0	4	2	W

Rosenborg

WLLDWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	9	0	W
09/08	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
02/08	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-3	12	5	L
27/07	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	2-0	4-0	10	1	W
18/07	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
12/07	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	2-0	3-0	8	1	W
29/05	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
25/05	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	2	2	L
16/05	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-3	11	8	L
10/05	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bodo/Glimt win (70%). Probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 70%, draw 17%, Rosenborg 13%.

How many goals are expected in Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?

The model expects 3.71 goals (Bodo/Glimt 2.63 · Rosenborg 1.08), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.