Football · Norway Eliteserien · 30/08, 17:00

Prediction: Sandefjord vs SK Brann

Team pages: Sandefjord · SK Brann

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Sandefjord1.38

SK Brann1.64

1X2

32% 26% 43%

Sandefjord Draw SK Brann

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sandefjord 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLDLLLLW

SK Brann 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWWLWW

Head-to-head

Sandefjord 1–2–3 SK Brann (6 last)

SK Brann0-1Sandefjord
Sandefjord0-3SK Brann
SK Brann1-0Sandefjord
Sandefjord2-2SK Brann
SK Brann2-1Sandefjord
Sandefjord1-1SK Brann

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sandefjord 1452 · SK Brann 1537

	Sandefjord	Draw	SK Brann
Our model	31%	26%	42%
Market	32%	25%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Brann (rating 1452 vs 1537).
H2H favours SK Brann: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sandefjord	SK Brann
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.6	2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.2	2.8 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.70

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.09 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.73
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.19

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:28 +1’	2.90	3.70	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:29	3.09	3.73	2.19

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sandefjord 1–2–3 SK Brann

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Norway Eliteserien	SK Brann	0-1 HT 0-1	Sandefjord
20/09/25 Norway Eliteserien	Sandefjord	0-3 HT 0-1	SK Brann
30/06/25 Norway Eliteserien	SK Brann	1-0 HT 0-0	Sandefjord
15/09/24 Norway Eliteserien	Sandefjord	2-2 HT 1-1	SK Brann
16/05/24 Norway Eliteserien	SK Brann	2-1 HT 0-0	Sandefjord
29/10/23 Norway Eliteserien	Sandefjord	1-1 HT 0-0	SK Brann

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	17	13	2	2	43	12	41
2	Viking FK	17	13	1	3	40	17	40
3	Tromso	17	10	4	3	34	20	34
4	Molde	17	8	3	6	32	26	27
5	Lillestrom	17	8	2	7	23	21	26
6	SK Brann	17	8	1	8	36	27	25
7	Rosenborg	17	7	3	7	25	22	24
8	Fredrikstad	17	7	2	8	18	27	23
9	Sarpsborg	17	6	4	7	20	23	22
10	Ham-Kam	17	6	4	7	24	30	22
11	Valerenga	17	6	3	8	28	34	21
12	KFUM	17	5	4	8	19	27	19
13	Sandefjord	17	5	3	9	15	23	18
14	Kristiansund BK	17	4	3	10	15	27	15
15	Aalesund	17	2	9	6	27	41	15
16	IK Start	17	2	4	11	16	38	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sandefjord	SK Brann
Sarpsborg	2-1 W	1-2 L
KFUM	0-1 L	2-1 W
Fredrikstad	0-1 L	3-1 W
Bodo/Glimt	0-3 L	1-3 L
Ham-Kam	2-2 D	3-0 W
Molde	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SK Brann (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sandefjord

WLDLDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
07/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
01/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	5	1	L
26/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
18/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
12/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
30/05	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	10	4	L
25/05	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
16/05	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
10/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	6	3	W

SK Brann

WWLLLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	10	3	W
02/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-2	5	5	W
26/07	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-3	2-3	10	5	L
18/07	Molde Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
12/07	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
29/05	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
24/05	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-3	3	1	L
20/05	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
16/05	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-1	6	5	W
02/05	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-1	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sandefjord vs SK Brann?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SK Brann win (43%). Probabilities: Sandefjord 32%, draw 26%, SK Brann 43%.

How many goals are expected in Sandefjord vs SK Brann?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Sandefjord 1.38 · SK Brann 1.64), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs SK Brann?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.