Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 18/09, 19:00

Prediction: Malmo FF (W) vs Djurgardens (W)

Team pages: Malmo FF (W) · Djurgardens (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Malmo FF (W)2.36

Djurgardens (W)0.91

1X2

69% 19% 12%

Malmo FF (W) Draw Djurgardens (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Malmo FF (W) 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLDWDWDW

Djurgardens (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWDWLL

Head-to-head

Malmo FF (W) 3–0 Djurgardens (W) (3 last)

Djurgardens (W)0-1Malmo FF (W)
Djurgardens (W)1-4Malmo FF (W)
Malmo FF (W)4-0Djurgardens (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malmo FF (W) 1592 · Djurgardens (W) 1477

	Malmo FF (W)	Draw	Djurgardens (W)
Our model	69%	19%	12%
Market	69%	19%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Malmo FF (W) (rating 1592 vs 1477).
H2H favours Malmo FF (W): 3-0-0.
High corners: 12 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malmo FF (W)	Djurgardens (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.4	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.4	2.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0	1.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.30

X4.75

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Pinn 1.38 ★
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +3’	1.30	4.75	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:56 +70’	1.38	4.65	6.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Malmo FF (W) 3–0–0 Djurgardens (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Djurgardens (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Malmo FF (W)
18/10/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Djurgardens (W)	1-4 HT 1-2	Malmo FF (W)
07/06/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Malmo FF (W)	4-0 HT 2-0	Djurgardens (W)

Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BK Hacken (W)	18	16	1	1	52	13	49
2	Hammarby (W)	17	14	2	1	42	8	44
3	Malmo FF (W)	18	9	6	3	35	11	33
4	Kristianstads (W)	18	8	4	6	30	27	28
5	AIK (W)	18	8	4	6	24	26	28
6	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	18	8	3	7	18	19	27
7	Vittsjö GIK (W)	18	7	4	7	22	23	25
8	Brommapojkarna (W)	18	7	2	9	24	33	23
9	Pitea IF (W)	18	6	4	8	21	26	22
10	Djurgardens (W)	18	5	3	10	21	29	18
11	FC Rosengård (W)	18	4	5	9	19	23	17
12	Vaxjo (W)	17	5	2	10	21	32	17
13	IFK Norrkoping (W)	18	2	7	9	15	28	13
14	IK Uppsala (W)	18	1	3	14	13	59	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Malmo FF (W)	Djurgardens (W)
Vaxjo (W)	4-0 W	3-2 W
IK Uppsala (W)	6-0 W	8-0 W
Kristianstads (W)	6-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Malmo FF (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Malmo FF (W)

DWWLDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-0	9	1	W
06/09	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
29/08	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	4-0	8	1	W
21/08	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
15/08	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	5-0	6-0	6	0	W
31/07	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
27/07	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
27/06	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	3-0	6-0	2	1	W
17/06	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
13/06	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-1	10	4	D

Djurgardens (W)

LLLLWWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-2	4	0	L
05/09	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
30/08	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
22/08	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	2-2	2	1	D
14/08	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	3-2	4	2	W
08/08	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	3-0	8-0	18	0	W
01/08	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
24/06	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	1-4	7	2	L
17/06	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
13/06	AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-3	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malmo FF (W) vs Djurgardens (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Malmo FF (W) win (69%). Probabilities: Malmo FF (W) 69%, draw 19%, Djurgardens (W) 12%.

How many goals are expected in Malmo FF (W) vs Djurgardens (W)?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Malmo FF (W) 2.36 · Djurgardens (W) 0.91), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Malmo FF (W) vs Djurgardens (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.