Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 26/09, 15:00

Prediction: AIK (W) vs Vaxjo (W)

Team pages: AIK (W) · Vaxjo (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

AIK (W)1.92

Vaxjo (W)1.12

1X2

55% 24% 21%

AIK (W) Draw Vaxjo (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AIK (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLLDWW

Vaxjo (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLWLWLLLD

Head-to-head

AIK (W) 4–1–1 Vaxjo (W) (6 last)

Vaxjo (W)3-3AIK (W)
AIK (W)1-2Vaxjo (W)
Vaxjo (W)0-2AIK (W)
Vaxjo (W)1-3AIK (W)
AIK (W)2-1Vaxjo (W)
AIK (W)1-0Vaxjo (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AIK (W) 1522 · Vaxjo (W) 1474

	AIK (W)	Draw	Vaxjo (W)
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AIK (W) (rating 1522 vs 1474).
H2H favours AIK (W): 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AIK (W)	Vaxjo (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	0.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.3 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	2.4 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	1.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.90

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.61▼	Bet365 1.61
X	3.70 → 3.90▲	Pinn 4.17
2	3.60 → 4.20▲	Pinn 5.10 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:53 +9’	1.75	3.70	3.60
15:15 +9’	1.61▼	3.90▲	4.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +9’	1.52	4.17	5.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AIK (W) 4–1–1 Vaxjo (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Vaxjo (W)	3-3 HT 1-2	AIK (W)
20/09/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	AIK (W)	1-2 HT 0-2	Vaxjo (W)
24/05/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Vaxjo (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	AIK (W)
19/10/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Vaxjo (W)	1-3 HT 0-3	AIK (W)
16/06/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	AIK (W)	2-1 HT 0-1	Vaxjo (W)
02/10/21 Sweden Damallsvenskan	AIK (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Vaxjo (W)

Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BK Hacken (W)	19	17	1	1	55	13	52
2	Hammarby (W)	19	15	2	2	46	10	47
3	Malmo FF (W)	19	10	6	3	38	11	36
4	AIK (W)	19	9	4	6	26	27	31
5	Kristianstads (W)	19	8	5	6	32	29	29
6	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	19	8	3	8	18	22	27
7	Vittsjö GIK (W)	19	7	5	7	24	25	26
8	Brommapojkarna (W)	19	8	2	9	25	33	26
9	Pitea IF (W)	19	6	5	8	23	28	23
10	Djurgardens (W)	19	5	3	11	21	32	18
11	Vaxjo (W)	19	5	3	11	23	37	18
12	FC Rosengård (W)	19	4	5	10	20	25	17
13	IFK Norrkoping (W)	19	3	7	9	17	29	16
14	IK Uppsala (W)	19	1	3	15	13	60	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AIK (W)	Vaxjo (W)
Hammarby (W)	2-1 W	0-3 L
Pitea IF (W)	1-0 W	0-2 L
Eskilstuna Utd (W)	1-1 D	1-0 W
Vittsjö GIK (W)	1-2 L	2-2 D
Brommapojkarna (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AIK (W)

LWLWLLLDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
13/09	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
05/09	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
29/08	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
23/08	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-2	1-4	1	2	L
15/08	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-2	11	1	L
07/08	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
01/08	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-3	0-3	3	4	L
24/06	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
17/06	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-3	1-4	9	1	L

Vaxjo (W)

DWLWLWLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	2-2	7	2	D
13/09	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
05/09	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-2	2	2	L
29/08	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-4	12	1	L
22/08	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
14/08	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	2-3	6	2	L
07/08	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-0	7	1	W
31/07	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-3	0-5	1	0	L
24/06	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	2-1	2	1	W
18/06	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-0	9	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AIK (W) vs Vaxjo (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AIK (W) win (55%). Probabilities: AIK (W) 55%, draw 24%, Vaxjo (W) 21%.

How many goals are expected in AIK (W) vs Vaxjo (W)?

The model expects 3.05 goals (AIK (W) 1.92 · Vaxjo (W) 1.12), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AIK (W) vs Vaxjo (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.