Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 18/10, 14:00

Prediction: Djurgardens (W) vs Pitea IF (W)

Team pages: Djurgardens (W) · Pitea IF (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Djurgardens (W)1.57

Pitea IF (W)1.47

1X2

39% 26% 35%

Djurgardens (W) Draw Pitea IF (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Djurgardens (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLLLWW

Pitea IF (W) 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWDWLDLD

Head-to-head

Djurgardens (W) 1–3–2 Pitea IF (W) (6 last)

Pitea IF (W)0-1Djurgardens (W)
Pitea IF (W)0-0Djurgardens (W)
Djurgardens (W)3-3Pitea IF (W)
Djurgardens (W)0-0Pitea IF (W)
Pitea IF (W)1-0Djurgardens (W)
Pitea IF (W)4-0Djurgardens (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Djurgardens (W) 1545 · Pitea IF (W) 1488

	Djurgardens (W)	Draw	Pitea IF (W)
Our model	39%	26%	35%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Djurgardens (W) (rating 1545 vs 1488).
H2H favours Pitea IF (W): 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Djurgardens (W)	Pitea IF (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.9	2.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.1 / 0	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.32
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.00 → 2.60▼	Pinn 3.00 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:38 +34’	2.05	3.40	3.00
19:43 +11’	2.30▲	3.40	2.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:24 +108’	2.44	3.14	2.75
02:01 +8’	2.41▼	3.14	2.79▲
04:10 +56’	2.30▼	3.14	2.96▲
12:04 +4’	2.32▲	3.19▲	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Djurgardens (W) 1–3–2 Pitea IF (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Pitea IF (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Djurgardens (W)
05/10/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Pitea IF (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Djurgardens (W)
12/04/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Djurgardens (W)	3-3 HT 1-1	Pitea IF (W)
06/10/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Djurgardens (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Pitea IF (W)
23/06/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Pitea IF (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Djurgardens (W)
29/06/23 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Pitea IF (W)	4-0 HT 3-0	Djurgardens (W)

Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BK Hacken (W)	21	19	1	1	70	13	58
2	Hammarby (W)	21	17	2	2	51	10	53
3	Malmo FF (W)	22	12	6	4	43	16	42
4	Kristianstads (W)	22	10	5	7	40	32	35
5	AIK (W)	22	10	4	8	32	32	34
6	Vittsjö GIK (W)	22	9	5	8	29	28	32
7	Brommapojkarna (W)	22	10	2	10	30	37	32
8	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	22	8	3	11	19	29	27
9	Pitea IF (W)	21	6	6	9	24	30	24
10	Djurgardens (W)	21	7	3	11	27	34	24
11	FC Rosengård (W)	22	6	5	11	23	26	23
12	IFK Norrkoping (W)	22	4	8	10	20	37	20
13	Vaxjo (W)	22	5	3	14	24	44	18
14	IK Uppsala (W)	22	1	3	18	14	78	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Djurgardens (W)	Pitea IF (W)
AIK (W)	2-1 W	0-1 L
IK Uppsala (W)	4-1 W	5-1 W
Malmo FF (W)	0-3 L	0-0 D
Kristianstads (W)	0-2 L	2-2 D
FC Rosengård (W)	0-1 L	0-1 L
IFK Norrkoping (W)	1-0 W	1-1 D
Brommapojkarna (W)	2-2 D	1-1 D
Vaxjo (W)	3-2 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pitea IF (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Djurgardens (W)

LWWDWLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	2-1	4	1	W
26/09	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	4-1	9	0	W
18/09	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-3	4	1	L
13/09	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-2	4	0	L
05/09	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
30/08	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
22/08	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	2-2	2	1	D
14/08	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	3-2	4	2	W
08/08	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	3-0	8-0	18	0	W
01/08	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-2	5	2	L

Pitea IF (W)

DLLWDWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
27/09	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
20/09	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-2	4	0	D
13/09	AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
05/09	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-0	9	2	W
30/08	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-1	7	0	D
23/08	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	5-1	7	1	W
16/08	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-4	0-5	0	0	L
09/08	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-2	1-4	2	2	L
31/07	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Djurgardens (W) vs Pitea IF (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Djurgardens (W) win (39%). Probabilities: Djurgardens (W) 39%, draw 26%, Pitea IF (W) 35%.

How many goals are expected in Djurgardens (W) vs Pitea IF (W)?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Djurgardens (W) 1.57 · Pitea IF (W) 1.47), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Djurgardens (W) vs Pitea IF (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.