Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 19/09, 13:00

Prediction: AIK (W) vs Hammarby (W)

Team pages: AIK (W) · Hammarby (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

AIK (W)0.82

Hammarby (W)2.03

1X2

14% 21% 65%

AIK (W) Draw Hammarby (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AIK (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLLLDW

Hammarby (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWDWWW

Head-to-head

AIK (W) 1–5 Hammarby (W) (6 last)

Hammarby (W)4-1AIK (W)
Hammarby (W)1-0AIK (W)
AIK (W)1-0Hammarby (W)
Hammarby (W)4-0AIK (W)
AIK (W)0-2Hammarby (W)
AIK (W)0-4Hammarby (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AIK (W) 1482 · Hammarby (W) 1612

	AIK (W)	Draw	Hammarby (W)
Our model	13%	22%	65%
Market	14%	20%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hammarby (W) (rating 1482 vs 1612).
H2H favours Hammarby (W): 5-0-1.
High corners: 13.8 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AIK (W)	Hammarby (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	2.8 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	1.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.4	2.9 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	0.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

16.25

X4.50

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.80

2 (-1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.25 → 6.25	Pinn 6.91 ★
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.61
2	1.36 → 1.36	Pinn 1.37

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:58 +23’	6.25	4.50	1.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:30 +55’	6.91	4.61	1.37

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AIK (W) 1–0–5 Hammarby (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Hammarby (W)	4-1 HT 3-0	AIK (W)
03/10/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Hammarby (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	AIK (W)
10/05/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	AIK (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Hammarby (W)
05/07/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Hammarby (W)	4-0 HT 3-0	AIK (W)
23/06/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	AIK (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Hammarby (W)
16/03/24 Sweden Cup Women	AIK (W)	0-4 HT 0-2	Hammarby (W)

Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BK Hacken (W)	18	16	1	1	52	13	49
2	Hammarby (W)	17	14	2	1	42	8	44
3	Malmo FF (W)	18	9	6	3	35	11	33
4	Kristianstads (W)	18	8	4	6	30	27	28
5	AIK (W)	18	8	4	6	24	26	28
6	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	18	8	3	7	18	19	27
7	Vittsjö GIK (W)	18	7	4	7	22	23	25
8	Brommapojkarna (W)	18	7	2	9	24	33	23
9	Pitea IF (W)	18	6	4	8	21	26	22
10	Djurgardens (W)	18	5	3	10	21	29	18
11	FC Rosengård (W)	18	4	5	9	19	23	17
12	Vaxjo (W)	17	5	2	10	21	32	17
13	IFK Norrkoping (W)	18	2	7	9	15	28	13
14	IK Uppsala (W)	18	1	3	14	13	59	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AIK (W)	Hammarby (W)
Pitea IF (W)	1-0 W	5-0 W
BK Hacken (W)	1-4 L	0-1 L
Vittsjö GIK (W)	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hammarby (W) (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AIK (W)

WLWLWLLLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
05/09	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
29/08	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
23/08	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-2	1-4	1	2	L
15/08	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-2	11	1	L
07/08	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
01/08	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-3	0-3	3	4	L
24/06	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
17/06	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-3	1-4	9	1	L
13/06	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	3-0	8	1	W

Hammarby (W)

LWDWWWDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	3-0	7	1	W
05/09	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	2-0	14	2	W
29/08	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	3-1	8	1	W
21/08	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
16/08	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	4-0	5-0	7	0	W
31/07	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	3-0	5-0	14	0	W
25/07	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	3-0	4-0	8	1	W
25/06	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-1	5	0	D
17/06	AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	3-0	4-1	2	1	W
13/06	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-1	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AIK (W) vs Hammarby (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hammarby (W) win (65%). Probabilities: AIK (W) 14%, draw 21%, Hammarby (W) 65%.

How many goals are expected in AIK (W) vs Hammarby (W)?

The model expects 2.84 goals (AIK (W) 0.82 · Hammarby (W) 2.03), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AIK (W) vs Hammarby (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.