Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 17/10, 14:00

Prediction: Malmo FF (W) vs AIK (W)

Team pages: Malmo FF (W) · AIK (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Malmo FF (W)1.79

AIK (W)0.99

1X2

55% 24% 20%

Malmo FF (W) Draw AIK (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Malmo FF (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDWDWWLW

AIK (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDWWWL

Head-to-head

Malmo FF (W) 2–1–0 AIK (W) (3 last)

AIK (W)2-2Malmo FF (W)
Malmo FF (W)2-0AIK (W)
AIK (W)1-4Malmo FF (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malmo FF (W) 1588 · AIK (W) 1509

	Malmo FF (W)	Draw	AIK (W)
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	56%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Malmo FF (W) (rating 1588 vs 1509).
H2H favours Malmo FF (W): 2-1-0.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malmo FF (W)	AIK (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.6	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7.3	2.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.2 / 0	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.80

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:53 +21’	1.60	3.80	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Malmo FF (W) 2–1–0 AIK (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Sweden Damallsvenskan	AIK (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	Malmo FF (W)
17/08/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Malmo FF (W)	2-0 HT 2-0	AIK (W)
19/04/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	AIK (W)	1-4 HT 1-2	Malmo FF (W)

Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BK Hacken (W)	21	19	1	1	70	13	58
2	Hammarby (W)	21	17	2	2	51	10	53
3	Malmo FF (W)	21	11	6	4	40	14	39
4	AIK (W)	21	10	4	7	30	29	34
5	Kristianstads (W)	21	9	5	7	35	32	32
6	Vittsjö GIK (W)	21	9	5	7	29	26	32
7	Brommapojkarna (W)	21	9	2	10	28	36	29
8	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	21	8	3	10	18	27	27
9	Pitea IF (W)	21	6	6	9	24	30	24
10	Djurgardens (W)	21	7	3	11	27	34	24
11	FC Rosengård (W)	21	5	5	11	21	26	20
12	Vaxjo (W)	21	5	3	13	23	42	18
13	IFK Norrkoping (W)	21	3	8	10	18	36	17
14	IK Uppsala (W)	21	1	3	17	14	73	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Malmo FF (W)	AIK (W)
Brommapojkarna (W)	1-3 L	1-0 W
Djurgardens (W)	3-0 W	1-2 L
Eskilstuna Utd (W)	1-0 W	1-1 D
BK Hacken (W)	1-1 D	1-4 L
Vaxjo (W)	4-0 W	3-0 W
Hammarby (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
Pitea IF (W)	0-0 D	1-0 W
Vittsjö GIK (W)	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Malmo FF (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Malmo FF (W)

LDWDWDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	9	1	W
27/09	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	1-3	8	1	L
18/09	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	3-0	9	1	W
12/09	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-0	9	1	W
06/09	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
29/08	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	4-0	8	1	W
21/08	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
15/08	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	5-0	6-0	6	0	W
31/07	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
27/07	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-1	9	3	L

AIK (W)

LWLLLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-2	6	1	L
26/09	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	3-0	3-0	6	3	W
19/09	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
13/09	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
05/09	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
29/08	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
23/08	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-2	1-4	1	2	L
15/08	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-2	11	1	L
07/08	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
01/08	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-3	0-3	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malmo FF (W) vs AIK (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Malmo FF (W) win (55%). Probabilities: Malmo FF (W) 55%, draw 24%, AIK (W) 20%.

How many goals are expected in Malmo FF (W) vs AIK (W)?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Malmo FF (W) 1.79 · AIK (W) 0.99), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Malmo FF (W) vs AIK (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.