Football · Brazil Serie A · 16/08, 21:00

Prediction: Vasco da Gama vs Santos

Team pages: Vasco da Gama · Santos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Vasco da Gama1.74

Santos1.2

1X2

49% 27% 25%

Vasco da Gama Draw Santos

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vasco da Gama 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLDDWDWD

Santos 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDWDWL

Head-to-head

Vasco da Gama 3–3 Santos (6 last)

Santos2-1Vasco da Gama
Santos0-6Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama2-1Santos
Santos4-1Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama0-1Santos
Vasco da Gama1-0Santos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vasco da Gama 1497 · Santos 1533

	Vasco da Gama	Draw	Santos
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vasco da Gama	Santos
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	2.6 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.40

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.05

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.97
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.45
2	3.80 → 3.75▼	Pinn 3.96 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:50	1.91	3.40	3.80
06:45 +11’	1.91	3.40	3.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:50	2.02	3.44	3.79
16:50	1.95▼	3.47▲	4.02▲
12:56	1.97▲	3.45▼	3.96▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasco da Gama 3–0–3 Santos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/02/26 Brazil Serie A	Santos	2-1 HT 1-1	Vasco da Gama
17/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Santos	0-6 HT 0-1	Vasco da Gama
30/03/25 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	2-1 HT 0-1	Santos
01/10/23 Brazil Serie A	Santos	4-1 HT 3-1	Vasco da Gama
14/05/23 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	0-1 HT 0-1	Santos
20/12/20 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	1-0 HT 1-0	Santos

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	22	14	6	2	38	16	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	39	18	42
3	Athletico Paranaense	22	12	4	6	30	19	40
4	Fluminense	22	9	8	5	31	26	35
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	30	31	33
6	EC Bahia	22	8	9	5	29	25	33
7	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	24	20	32
8	Bragantino	21	9	4	8	26	22	31
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	35	33	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	27	29	30
11	Atletico Mineiro	21	8	5	8	27	27	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	26	25	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	22	33	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	24	27	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	24	30	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	23	27	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	29	35	22
18	Vasco da Gama	21	5	7	9	23	31	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	26	36	22
20	Chapecoense	21	1	7	13	20	43	10

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vasco da Gama

LWLLDDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
06/08	Fluminense Copa do Brasil	1-0	3-1	5	8	W
01/08	Fluminense Copa do Brasil	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
30/07	Independiente Medellin Copa Sudamericana	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
26/07	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
23/07	Independiente Medellin Copa Sudamericana	0-1	2-2	6	2	D
17/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
31/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
28/05	Barracas Central Copa Sudamericana	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
25/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	6	4	L

Santos

WWWLWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	10	2	L
05/08	Remo Copa do Brasil	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
02/08	Remo Copa do Brasil	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
29/07	UCV Copa Sudamericana	1-1	4-2	6	2	W
25/07	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	12	7	D
22/07	UCV Copa Sudamericana	1-0	4-1	6	4	W
17/07	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
04/07	Uniao Sao Joao America Friendlies	0-0	3-0	10	0	W
31/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	1	8	W
27/05	Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana	1-0	3-0	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasco da Gama vs Santos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vasco da Gama win (49%). Probabilities: Vasco da Gama 49%, draw 27%, Santos 25%.

How many goals are expected in Vasco da Gama vs Santos?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Vasco da Gama 1.74 · Santos 1.2), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vasco da Gama vs Santos?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.