Football · Brazil Serie A · 16/08, 16:00

Prediction: Chapecoense vs EC Bahia

Team pages: Chapecoense · EC Bahia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Chapecoense1.04

EC Bahia1.42

1X2

27% 28% 45%

Chapecoense Draw EC Bahia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Chapecoense 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLDDLL

EC Bahia 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWDDDD

Head-to-head

Chapecoense 2–1–3 EC Bahia (6 last)

EC Bahia2-0Chapecoense
Chapecoense3-1EC Bahia
EC Bahia0-1Chapecoense
EC Bahia3-0Chapecoense
Chapecoense0-2EC Bahia
EC Bahia1-1Chapecoense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chapecoense 1470 · EC Bahia 1517

	Chapecoense	Draw	EC Bahia
Our model	26%	29%	44%
Market	27%	27%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EC Bahia (rating 1470 vs 1517).
H2H favours EC Bahia: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chapecoense	EC Bahia
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	2.5 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.40

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.05

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.45
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.45
2	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.13 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:42 +2’	3.40	3.40	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:43 +1’	3.45	3.45	2.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chapecoense 2–1–3 EC Bahia

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	2-0 HT 2-0	Chapecoense
01/10/22 Brazil Serie B	Chapecoense	3-1 HT 0-1	EC Bahia
15/06/22 Brazil Serie B	EC Bahia	0-1 HT 0-1	Chapecoense
25/10/21 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	3-0 HT 2-0	Chapecoense
04/07/21 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	0-2 HT 0-0	EC Bahia
07/11/19 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-1 HT 0-1	Chapecoense

Standings · Brazil Serie A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	22	14	6	2	38	16	48
2	Flamengo	20	11	6	3	37	18	39
3	Athletico Paranaense	21	11	4	6	28	19	37
4	Fluminense	22	9	8	5	31	26	35
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	30	31	33
6	EC Bahia	22	8	9	5	29	25	33
7	Bragantino	20	9	4	7	26	20	31
8	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	35	33	30
9	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	27	29	30
10	Atletico Mineiro	21	8	5	8	27	27	29
11	Corinthians	21	7	8	6	22	20	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	26	25	26
13	Vitoria	21	7	5	9	22	31	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	24	27	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	24	30	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	23	27	23
17	Santos	20	5	7	8	29	33	22
18	Vasco da Gama	21	5	7	9	23	31	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	26	36	22
20	Chapecoense	21	1	7	13	20	43	10

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chapecoense	EC Bahia
Coritiba	1-2 L	2-3 L
Gremio	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chapecoense (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Chapecoense

LLWWLLDDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
06/08	Cruzeiro Copa do Brasil	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
02/08	Cruzeiro Copa do Brasil	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
25/07	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-2	1	7	D
23/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-4	5	1	L
18/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	6	1	L
05/07	Gremio America Friendlies	2-0	2-1	3	4	W
07/06	Avai Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste	1-0	3-0	10	6	W
04/06	Avai Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste	0-3	0-3	5	6	L
31/05	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	3	L

EC Bahia

DLWWLWDDDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
30/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
26/07	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	7	7	D
22/07	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
18/07	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
12/07	Fluminense America Friendlies	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
04/07	Torque America Friendlies	1-1	4-1	5	5	W
30/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	10	9	W
26/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-3	6	3	L
17/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	7	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chapecoense vs EC Bahia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an EC Bahia win (45%). Probabilities: Chapecoense 27%, draw 28%, EC Bahia 45%.

How many goals are expected in Chapecoense vs EC Bahia?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Chapecoense 1.04 · EC Bahia 1.42), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chapecoense vs EC Bahia?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.