Football · Brazil Serie A · 16/08, 02:00

Prediction: Sao Paulo vs Coritiba

Team pages: Sao Paulo · Coritiba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Sao Paulo1.74

Coritiba0.89

1X2

56% 26% 18%

Sao Paulo Draw Coritiba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Paulo 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDDWLLDL

Coritiba 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLLDLW

Head-to-head

Sao Paulo 3–3–0 Coritiba (6 last)

Coritiba0-1Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo2-1Coritiba
Coritiba1-1Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo3-1Coritiba
Coritiba1-1Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo1-1Coritiba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Paulo 1461 · Coritiba 1463

	Sao Paulo	Draw	Coritiba
Our model	56%	26%	18%
Market	56%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sao Paulo: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Paulo	Coritiba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.7	2.2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.60

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.05

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.71
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.82 ★
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:38 +1’	1.67	3.60	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:39	1.71	3.82	4.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Paulo 3–3–0 Coritiba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/02/26 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	0-1 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo
28/09/23 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	2-1 HT 2-1	Coritiba
29/04/23 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	1-1 HT 1-0	Sao Paulo
21/10/22 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	3-1 HT 1-0	Coritiba
10/06/22 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	1-1 HT 0-1	Sao Paulo
23/01/21 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	1-1 HT 0-0	Coritiba

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	22	14	6	2	38	16	48
2	Flamengo	20	11	6	3	37	18	39
3	Athletico Paranaense	21	11	4	6	28	19	37
4	Fluminense	22	9	8	5	31	26	35
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	30	31	33
6	EC Bahia	22	8	9	5	29	25	33
7	Bragantino	20	9	4	7	26	20	31
8	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	35	33	30
9	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	27	29	30
10	Atletico Mineiro	21	8	5	8	27	27	29
11	Corinthians	21	7	8	6	22	20	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	26	25	26
13	Vitoria	21	7	5	9	22	31	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	24	27	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	24	30	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	23	27	23
17	Santos	20	5	7	8	29	33	22
18	Vasco da Gama	21	5	7	9	23	31	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	26	36	22
20	Chapecoense	21	1	7	13	20	43	10

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sao Paulo

LLLDDWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
26/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
23/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	1	L
01/06	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
27/05	Boston River Copa Sudamericana	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
23/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
20/05	Millonarios Copa Sudamericana	1-0	1-1	7	7	D
17/05	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
14/05	EC Juventude Copa do Brasil	0-0	1-3	4	4	L
10/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	7	8	L

Coritiba

LDLWWLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
31/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
26/07	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
23/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
30/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
26/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-1	3-2	3	3	W
17/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	3-0	3-0	3	6	W
14/05	Santos Copa do Brasil	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
09/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
02/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-2	1-4	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Paulo win (56%). Probabilities: Sao Paulo 56%, draw 26%, Coritiba 18%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Sao Paulo 1.74 · Coritiba 0.89), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.