Football · Brazil Serie A · 09/08, 23:30
Prediction: Santos vs Athletico Paranaense
Team pages: Santos · Athletico Paranaense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.41Total
Santos1.31
Athletico Paranaense1.11
1X2
Santos
Draw
Athletico Paranaense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Santos
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Athletico Paranaense
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Santos
2–2–2
Athletico Paranaense
(6 last)
- Athletico Paranaense2-1Santos
- Athletico Paranaense3-0Santos
- Santos1-1Athletico Paranaense
- Santos2-0Athletico Paranaense
- Athletico Paranaense2-2Santos
- Athletico Paranaense0-1Santos
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Santos 1539 · Athletico Paranaense 1541
| Santos | Draw | Athletico Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Market | 40% | 30% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Santos | Athletico Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.3 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 22/44/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.9 | 2.4 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Santos 2–2–2 Athletico Paranaense
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/26 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Santos |
| 03/12/23 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Santos |
| 05/08/23 Brazil Serie A | Santos | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Athletico Paranaense |
| 28/09/22 Brazil Serie A | Santos | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Athletico Paranaense |
| 05/06/22 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Santos |
| 30/10/21 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Santos |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 18 | 39 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 19 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 25 | 34 |
| 5 | EC Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 30 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 34 | 32 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 20 | 29 |
| 10 | Atletico Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 25 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 28 | 27 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 23 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 31 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 33 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 22 |
| 17 | Gremio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 26 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 31 | 21 |
| 19 | Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 34 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | 10 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Santos
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Remo Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 29/07 | UCV Copa Sudamericana |
1-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 7 | D |
| 22/07 | UCV Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 17/07 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 04/07 | Uniao Sao Joao America Friendlies |
0-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 31/05 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 27/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | San Lorenzo Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
Athletico Paranaense
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 25/07 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 23/07 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | Bragantino America Friendlies |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 09/07 | Boca Juniors America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 18/05 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 15/05 | Atletico GO Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Santos vs Athletico Paranaense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Santos win (40%). Probabilities: Santos 40%, draw 30%, Athletico Paranaense 30%.
How many goals are expected in Santos vs Athletico Paranaense?
The model expects 2.41 goals (Santos 1.31 · Athletico Paranaense 1.11), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Athletico Paranaense?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.