Football · Brazil Serie A · 10/08, 00:30
Prediction: Flamengo vs Vitoria
Team pages: Flamengo · Vitoria
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.38Total
Flamengo2.59
Vitoria0.79
1X2
Flamengo
Draw
Vitoria
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Flamengo
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Vitoria
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Flamengo
4–1–1
Vitoria
(6 last)
- Vitoria2-0Flamengo
- Flamengo2-1Vitoria
- Vitoria1-2Flamengo
- Flamengo8-0Vitoria
- Vitoria1-2Flamengo
- Flamengo2-2Vitoria
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Flamengo 1589 · Vitoria 1504
| Flamengo | Draw | Vitoria | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 16% | 8% |
| Market | 75% | 18% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Flamengo (rating 1589 vs 1504).
- H2H favours Flamengo: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Flamengo | Vitoria | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 4.9 | 2.5 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 4.6 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Flamengo 4–1–1 Vitoria
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/26 Copa do Brasil | Vitoria | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Flamengo |
| 23/04/26 Copa do Brasil | Flamengo | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Vitoria |
| 11/02/26 Brazil Serie A | Vitoria | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Flamengo |
| 26/08/25 Brazil Serie A | Flamengo | 8-0 HT 3-0 | Vitoria |
| 06/04/25 Brazil Serie A | Vitoria | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Flamengo |
| 08/12/24 Brazil Serie A | Flamengo | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Vitoria |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 18 | 39 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 19 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 25 | 34 |
| 5 | EC Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 30 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 34 | 32 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 20 | 29 |
| 10 | Atletico Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 25 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 28 | 27 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 23 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 31 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 33 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 22 |
| 17 | Gremio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 26 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 31 | 21 |
| 19 | Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 34 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | 10 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Flamengo | Vitoria |
|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Palmeiras | 0-3 L | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Flamengo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 26/07 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 23/07 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Olimpia Asuncion America Friendlies |
3-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | Benfica World Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 08/07 | FC Lausanne-Sport World Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 03/07 | River Plate America Friendlies |
2-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | Cusco FC Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 12 | L |
Vitoria
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 27/07 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 24/07 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 17/07 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Fortaleza Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 03/06 | Fortaleza Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 28/05 | ABC Brazil Copa Nordeste |
1-2 | 4-3 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | ABC Brazil Copa Nordeste |
2-2 | 6-2 | 3 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Flamengo vs Vitoria?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Flamengo win (75%). Probabilities: Flamengo 75%, draw 17%, Vitoria 8%.
How many goals are expected in Flamengo vs Vitoria?
The model expects 3.38 goals (Flamengo 2.59 · Vitoria 0.79), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Vitoria?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.