Football · Brazil Serie A · 09/08, 21:00

Prediction: EC Bahia vs Vasco da Gama

Team pages: EC Bahia · Vasco da Gama

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

EC Bahia1.55

Vasco da Gama1.01

1X2

49% 28% 24%

EC Bahia Draw Vasco da Gama

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

EC Bahia 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLWDDD

Vasco da Gama 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLDDWD

Head-to-head

EC Bahia 3–1–2 Vasco da Gama (6 last)

Vasco da Gama0-1EC Bahia
EC Bahia1-0Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama3-1EC Bahia
Vasco da Gama3-2EC Bahia
EC Bahia2-1Vasco da Gama
EC Bahia1-1Vasco da Gama

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EC Bahia 1521 · Vasco da Gama 1474

	EC Bahia	Draw	Vasco da Gama
Our model	49%	28%	23%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EC Bahia (rating 1521 vs 1474).
H2H favours EC Bahia: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EC Bahia	Vasco da Gama
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.40

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.75 ★
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:35 +5’	1.90	3.40	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:39	1.90	3.75	3.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · EC Bahia 3–1–2 Vasco da Gama

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
12/02/26 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	0-1 HT 0-1	EC Bahia
23/11/25 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-0 HT 0-0	Vasco da Gama
25/09/25 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	3-1 HT 1-1	EC Bahia
29/10/24 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	3-2 HT 3-1	EC Bahia
27/06/24 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	2-1 HT 1-1	Vasco da Gama
03/09/23 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-1 HT 1-0	Vasco da Gama

Standings · Brazil Serie A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	21	14	5	2	38	16	47
2	Flamengo	20	11	6	3	37	18	39
3	Athletico Paranaense	21	11	4	6	28	19	37
4	Fluminense	21	9	7	5	30	25	34
5	EC Bahia	21	8	8	5	29	25	32
6	Bragantino	20	9	4	7	26	20	31
7	Cruzeiro	21	8	6	7	27	30	30
8	Botafogo	20	8	5	7	34	32	29
9	Corinthians	21	7	8	6	22	20	29
10	Atletico Mineiro	20	8	4	8	25	25	28
11	Coritiba	21	7	6	8	25	28	27
12	Sao Paulo	20	7	5	8	25	23	26
13	Vitoria	21	7	5	9	22	31	26
14	Mirassol	20	6	5	9	23	27	23
15	Santos	20	5	7	8	29	33	22
16	Internacional	21	5	7	9	23	27	22
17	Gremio	20	5	7	8	22	26	22
18	Vasco da Gama	20	5	6	9	23	31	21
19	Remo	21	5	6	10	24	34	21
20	Chapecoense	20	1	7	12	19	41	10

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EC Bahia	Vasco da Gama
Fluminense	0-0 D	0-0 D
Atletico Mineiro	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: EC Bahia (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

EC Bahia

LDLWWLWDDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
26/07	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	7	7	D
22/07	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
18/07	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
12/07	Fluminense America Friendlies	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
04/07	Torque America Friendlies	1-1	4-1	5	5	W
30/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	10	9	W
26/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-3	6	3	L
17/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
14/05	Remo Copa do Brasil	1-1	1-2	8	6	L

Vasco da Gama

LLLWLLDDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Fluminense Copa do Brasil	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
30/07	Independiente Medellin Copa Sudamericana	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
26/07	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
23/07	Independiente Medellin Copa Sudamericana	0-1	2-2	6	2	D
17/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
31/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
28/05	Barracas Central Copa Sudamericana	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
25/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
21/05	Olimpia Asuncion Copa Sudamericana	1-0	1-3	3	7	L
16/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-4	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EC Bahia vs Vasco da Gama?

According to our model, the most likely result is a EC Bahia win (49%). Probabilities: EC Bahia 49%, draw 28%, Vasco da Gama 24%.

How many goals are expected in EC Bahia vs Vasco da Gama?

The model expects 2.56 goals (EC Bahia 1.55 · Vasco da Gama 1.01), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in EC Bahia vs Vasco da Gama?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.