Football · Brazil Serie A · 09/08, 16:00

Prediction: Cruzeiro vs Mirassol

Team pages: Cruzeiro · Mirassol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Cruzeiro1.66

Mirassol0.87

1X2

55% 27% 19%

Cruzeiro Draw Mirassol

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cruzeiro 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDWLWLWD

Mirassol 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLWDWD

Head-to-head

Cruzeiro 1–2–0 Mirassol (3 last)

Mirassol2-2Cruzeiro
Mirassol1-1Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro2-1Mirassol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cruzeiro 1533 · Mirassol 1522

	Cruzeiro	Draw	Mirassol
Our model	55%	27%	19%
Market	55%	27%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cruzeiro	Mirassol
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.79 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.24

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:33 +2’	1.70	3.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:35	1.68	3.79	5.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cruzeiro 1–2–0 Mirassol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/02/26 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	2-2 HT 1-1	Cruzeiro
19/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	1-1 HT 0-1	Cruzeiro
29/03/25 Brazil Serie A	Cruzeiro	2-1 HT 2-1	Mirassol

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	21	14	5	2	38	16	47
2	Flamengo	20	11	6	3	37	18	39
3	Athletico Paranaense	21	11	4	6	28	19	37
4	Fluminense	21	9	7	5	30	25	34
5	EC Bahia	21	8	8	5	29	25	32
6	Bragantino	20	9	4	7	26	20	31
7	Cruzeiro	21	8	6	7	27	30	30
8	Botafogo	20	8	5	7	34	32	29
9	Corinthians	21	7	8	6	22	20	29
10	Atletico Mineiro	20	8	4	8	25	25	28
11	Coritiba	21	7	6	8	25	28	27
12	Sao Paulo	20	7	5	8	25	23	26
13	Vitoria	21	7	5	9	22	31	26
14	Mirassol	20	6	5	9	23	27	23
15	Santos	20	5	7	8	29	33	22
16	Internacional	21	5	7	9	23	27	22
17	Gremio	20	5	7	8	22	26	22
18	Vasco da Gama	20	5	6	9	23	31	21
19	Remo	21	5	6	10	24	34	21
20	Chapecoense	20	1	7	12	19	41	10

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cruzeiro	Mirassol
Gremio	1-3 L	1-1 D
Fluminense	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Mirassol (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Cruzeiro

DWWDWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Chapecoense Copa do Brasil	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
31/07	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
26/07	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	9	7	L
23/07	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	7	8	W
12/07	Gremio Club Friendly List	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
04/07	Defensor Sporting America Friendlies	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
01/06	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
29/05	Barcelona Guayaquil Copa Libertadores	1-0	4-0	6	6	W
24/05	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
20/05	Boca Juniors Copa Libertadores	0-1	1-1	1	5	D

Mirassol

WLWWLLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Gremio Copa do Brasil	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
30/07	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
26/07	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
18/07	Gremio Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
30/05	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
27/05	Lanus Copa Libertadores	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
24/05	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
20/05	Always Ready Copa Libertadores	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
16/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	6	1	L
14/05	Bragantino Copa do Brasil	1-1	2-1	2	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cruzeiro win (55%). Probabilities: Cruzeiro 55%, draw 27%, Mirassol 19%.

How many goals are expected in Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Cruzeiro 1.66 · Mirassol 0.87), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.