Football · Brazil Serie A · 09/08, 21:00

Prediction: Palmeiras vs Internacional

Team pages: Palmeiras · Internacional

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

Palmeiras2.23

Internacional1.18

1X2

59% 23% 17%

Palmeiras Draw Internacional

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Palmeiras 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWWLWW

Internacional 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLLLLD

Head-to-head

Palmeiras 4–1–1 Internacional (6 last)

Internacional1-3Palmeiras
Palmeiras4-1Internacional
Internacional0-1Palmeiras
Internacional1-1Palmeiras
Palmeiras0-1Internacional
Palmeiras3-0Internacional

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Palmeiras 1595 · Internacional 1477

	Palmeiras	Draw	Internacional
Our model	60%	21%	18%
Market	58%	25%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palmeiras (rating 1595 vs 1477).
H2H favours Palmeiras: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Palmeiras	Internacional
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 0.7	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.9	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.70

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.05

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.61
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.81
2	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 5.93 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:39	1.57	3.70	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:39	1.61	3.81	5.93

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Palmeiras 4–1–1 Internacional

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/02/26 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	1-3 HT 1-1	Palmeiras
13/09/25 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	4-1 HT 4-0	Internacional
17/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	0-1 HT 0-0	Palmeiras
04/08/24 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	1-1 HT 1-0	Palmeiras
18/04/24 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	0-1 HT 0-1	Internacional
12/11/23 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	3-0 HT 1-0	Internacional

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	21	14	5	2	38	16	47
2	Flamengo	20	11	6	3	37	18	39
3	Athletico Paranaense	21	11	4	6	28	19	37
4	Fluminense	21	9	7	5	30	25	34
5	EC Bahia	21	8	8	5	29	25	32
6	Bragantino	20	9	4	7	26	20	31
7	Cruzeiro	21	8	6	7	27	30	30
8	Botafogo	20	8	5	7	34	32	29
9	Corinthians	21	7	8	6	22	20	29
10	Atletico Mineiro	20	8	4	8	25	25	28
11	Coritiba	21	7	6	8	25	28	27
12	Sao Paulo	20	7	5	8	25	23	26
13	Vitoria	21	7	5	9	22	31	26
14	Mirassol	20	6	5	9	23	27	23
15	Santos	20	5	7	8	29	33	22
16	Internacional	21	5	7	9	23	27	22
17	Gremio	20	5	7	8	22	26	22
18	Vasco da Gama	20	5	6	9	23	31	21
19	Remo	21	5	6	10	24	34	21
20	Chapecoense	20	1	7	12	19	41	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Palmeiras	Internacional
Vitoria	4-0 W	0-2 L
Coritiba	3-1 W	2-2 D
Flamengo	3-0 W	1-1 D
Cruzeiro	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Palmeiras (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Palmeiras

WDLWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Fortaleza Copa do Brasil	0-0	3-0	7	3	W
30/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-0	1	7	W
27/07	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	10	3	L
23/07	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
31/05	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
29/05	Junior Copa Libertadores	3-1	4-1	0	3	W
24/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	4	12	W
21/05	Cerro Porteno Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
17/05	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
14/05	Jacuipense Copa do Brasil	3-0	4-1	8	2	W

Internacional

WWDWWLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
25/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	7	0	L
23/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
31/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-3	1	6	L
23/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
16/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-1	3	5	W
13/05	Athletic Club MG Copa do Brasil	2-1	3-2	3	2	W
09/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-2	8	4	D
07/05	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Recopa Gaucha	0-0	2-1	15	1	W
03/05	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Palmeiras vs Internacional?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Palmeiras win (59%). Probabilities: Palmeiras 59%, draw 23%, Internacional 17%.

How many goals are expected in Palmeiras vs Internacional?

The model expects 3.41 goals (Palmeiras 2.23 · Internacional 1.18), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Internacional?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.