Football · Brazil Serie A · 09/08, 23:30
Prediction: Bragantino vs Corinthians
Team pages: Bragantino · Corinthians
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.34Total
Bragantino1.39
Corinthians0.95
1X2
Bragantino
Draw
Corinthians
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Bragantino
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Corinthians
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bragantino
4–2
Corinthians
(6 last)
- Corinthians2-0Bragantino
- Bragantino3-0Corinthians
- Bragantino2-1Corinthians
- Corinthians1-2Bragantino
- Bragantino1-2Corinthians
- Corinthians1-2Bragantino
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bragantino 1570 · Corinthians 1527
| Bragantino | Draw | Corinthians | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 30% | 24% |
| Market | 46% | 29% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bragantino (rating 1570 vs 1527).
- H2H favours Bragantino: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bragantino | Corinthians | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 56/44/0% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.9 | 2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.6 | 4.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bragantino 4–0–2 Corinthians
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/26 Brazil Serie A | Corinthians | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Bragantino |
| 15/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista | Bragantino | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Corinthians |
| 05/11/25 Brazil Serie A | Bragantino | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Corinthians |
| 14/07/25 Brazil Serie A | Corinthians | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Bragantino |
| 16/01/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista | Bragantino | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Corinthians |
| 21/08/24 Copa Sudamericana | Corinthians | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Bragantino |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 18 | 39 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 19 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 25 | 34 |
| 5 | EC Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 30 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 34 | 32 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 20 | 29 |
| 10 | Atletico Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 25 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 28 | 27 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 23 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 31 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 33 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 22 |
| 17 | Gremio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 26 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 31 | 21 |
| 19 | Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 34 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | 10 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bragantino
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Sporting Cristal Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 7 | W |
| 26/07 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 23/07 | Sporting Cristal Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 18/07 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 11/07 | Athletico Paranaense America Friendlies |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | Carabobo Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 25/05 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | River Plate Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
Corinthians
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 26/07 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 24/07 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 12/07 | FC Cascavel America Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | Platense Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Penarol Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 17/05 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 15/05 | Barra FC Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bragantino vs Corinthians?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bragantino win (46%). Probabilities: Bragantino 46%, draw 29%, Corinthians 25%.
How many goals are expected in Bragantino vs Corinthians?
The model expects 2.34 goals (Bragantino 1.39 · Corinthians 0.95), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Bragantino vs Corinthians?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.