Football · Brazil Serie A · 15/08, 23:30

Prediction: Athletico Paranaense vs Bragantino

Team pages: Athletico Paranaense · Bragantino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Athletico Paranaense1.24

Bragantino0.83

1X2

46% 30% 24%

Athletico Paranaense Draw Bragantino

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Athletico Paranaense 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWWDWL

Bragantino 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDDDW

Head-to-head

Athletico Paranaense 2–1–3 Bragantino (6 last)

Bragantino2-1Athletico Paranaense
Bragantino1-1Athletico Paranaense
Athletico Paranaense1-2Bragantino
Bragantino2-3Athletico Paranaense
Athletico Paranaense2-0Bragantino
Bragantino1-0Athletico Paranaense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletico Paranaense 1534 · Bragantino 1574

	Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Bragantino
Our model	45%	32%	23%
Market	46%	29%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bragantino (rating 1534 vs 1574).
H2H favours Bragantino: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletico Paranaense	Bragantino
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.5 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.7 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	56/44/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	2.4 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	4.7 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.05

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:31 +5’	2.00	3.25	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletico Paranaense 2–1–3 Bragantino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 America Friendlies	Bragantino	2-1	Athletico Paranaense
25/02/26 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	1-1 HT 1-0	Athletico Paranaense
06/12/24 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	1-2 HT 0-1	Bragantino
08/08/24 Copa do Brasil	Bragantino	2-3 HT 0-1	Athletico Paranaense
01/08/24 Copa do Brasil	Athletico Paranaense	2-0 HT 2-0	Bragantino
21/07/24 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	1-0 HT 1-0	Athletico Paranaense

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	21	14	5	2	38	16	47
2	Flamengo	20	11	6	3	37	18	39
3	Athletico Paranaense	21	11	4	6	28	19	37
4	Fluminense	22	9	8	5	31	26	35
5	EC Bahia	21	8	8	5	29	25	32
6	Bragantino	20	9	4	7	26	20	31
7	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	35	33	30
8	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	27	29	30
9	Cruzeiro	21	8	6	7	27	30	30
10	Atletico Mineiro	21	8	5	8	27	27	29
11	Corinthians	21	7	8	6	22	20	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	26	25	26
13	Vitoria	21	7	5	9	22	31	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	24	27	25
15	Mirassol	20	6	5	9	23	27	23
16	Santos	20	5	7	8	29	33	22
17	Internacional	21	5	7	9	23	27	22
18	Remo	22	5	7	10	26	36	22
19	Vasco da Gama	20	5	6	9	23	31	21
20	Chapecoense	21	1	7	13	20	43	10

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletico Paranaense	Bragantino
Vitoria	0-4 L	2-0 W
Internacional	2-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bragantino (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Athletico Paranaense

DWWLLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Vitoria Copa do Brasil	0-2	0-4	6	8	L
04/08	Vitoria Copa do Brasil	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
31/07	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
25/07	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
23/07	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
11/07	Bragantino America Friendlies	–	1-2	–	–	L
09/07	Boca Juniors America Friendlies	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
30/05	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
24/05	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	10	6	W
18/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	9	5	D

Bragantino

WDWWWWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Sporting Cristal Copa Sudamericana	0-0	1-0	11	7	W
26/07	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
23/07	Sporting Cristal Copa Sudamericana	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
18/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
11/07	Athletico Paranaense America Friendlies	–	2-1	–	–	W
31/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-1	6	6	W
28/05	Carabobo Copa Sudamericana	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
25/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
21/05	River Plate Copa Sudamericana	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
17/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletico Paranaense vs Bragantino?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletico Paranaense win (46%). Probabilities: Athletico Paranaense 46%, draw 30%, Bragantino 24%.

How many goals are expected in Athletico Paranaense vs Bragantino?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Athletico Paranaense 1.24 · Bragantino 0.83), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletico Paranaense vs Bragantino?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.