Football · Brazil Serie A · 16/08, 23:30

Prediction: Mirassol vs Flamengo

Team pages: Mirassol · Flamengo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Mirassol0.99

Flamengo1.65

1X2

21% 27% 52%

Mirassol Draw Flamengo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Mirassol 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLWDWDLL

Flamengo 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDDWD

Head-to-head

Mirassol 0–1–1 Flamengo (2 last)

Mirassol3-3Flamengo
Flamengo2-1Mirassol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mirassol 1499 · Flamengo 1583

	Mirassol	Draw	Flamengo
Our model	21%	27%	52%
Market	22%	27%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Flamengo (rating 1499 vs 1583).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mirassol	Flamengo
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	2.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	2.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.50

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.02

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 06:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.52
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.69 ★
2	1.90 → 1.80▼	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:50 +2’	4.00	3.40	1.90
06:30 +2’	4.33▲	3.40	1.83▼
06:54 +5’	4.33	3.50▲	1.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:51	4.44	3.68	1.77
02:40 +1’	4.51▲	3.72▲	1.79▲
14:29 +1’	4.52▲	3.69▼	1.79

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mirassol 0–1–1 Flamengo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/12/25 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	3-3 HT 2-2	Flamengo
09/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	2-1 HT 1-0	Mirassol

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	22	14	6	2	38	16	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	39	18	42
3	Athletico Paranaense	22	12	4	6	30	19	40
4	Fluminense	22	9	8	5	31	26	35
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	30	31	33
6	EC Bahia	22	8	9	5	29	25	33
7	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	24	20	32
8	Bragantino	21	9	4	8	26	22	31
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	35	33	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	27	29	30
11	Atletico Mineiro	21	8	5	8	27	27	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	26	25	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	22	33	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	24	27	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	24	30	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	23	27	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	29	35	22
18	Vasco da Gama	21	5	7	9	23	31	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	26	36	22
20	Chapecoense	21	1	7	13	20	43	10

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Mirassol

WWLLWDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	1	4	L
06/08	Gremio Copa do Brasil	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
02/08	Gremio Copa do Brasil	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
30/07	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
26/07	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
18/07	Gremio Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
30/05	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
27/05	Lanus Copa Libertadores	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
24/05	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
20/05	Always Ready Copa Libertadores	1-0	2-1	3	8	W

Flamengo

WDWWWWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Cruzeiro Copa Libertadores	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
10/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
30/07	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
26/07	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
23/07	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-0	3	1	W
18/07	Olimpia Asuncion America Friendlies	3-1	4-2	2	4	W
11/07	Benfica World Club Friendlies	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
08/07	FC Lausanne-Sport World Club Friendlies	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
03/07	River Plate America Friendlies	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
30/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mirassol vs Flamengo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Flamengo win (52%). Probabilities: Mirassol 21%, draw 27%, Flamengo 52%.

How many goals are expected in Mirassol vs Flamengo?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Mirassol 0.99 · Flamengo 1.65), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Flamengo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.