Football · Brazil Serie A · 15/08, 21:30
Prediction: Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio
Team pages: Atletico Mineiro · Gremio
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Atletico Mineiro1.68
Gremio0.95
1X2
Atletico Mineiro
Draw
Gremio
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Mineiro
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Gremio
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Mineiro
3–3
Gremio
(6 last)
- Gremio2-1Atletico Mineiro
- Atletico Mineiro1-3Gremio
- Gremio2-1Atletico Mineiro
- Atletico Mineiro2-1Gremio
- Gremio2-3Atletico Mineiro
- Atletico Mineiro3-0Gremio
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Mineiro 1548 · Gremio 1536
| Atletico Mineiro | Draw | Gremio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market | 53% | 27% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Mineiro | Gremio | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 22/22/56% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.7 | 3.5 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 4.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Mineiro 3–0–3 Gremio
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/26 Brazil Serie A | Gremio | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Atletico Mineiro |
| 17/08/25 Brazil Serie A | Atletico Mineiro | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Gremio |
| 29/03/25 Brazil Serie A | Gremio | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Atletico Mineiro |
| 10/10/24 Brazil Serie A | Atletico Mineiro | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Gremio |
| 01/09/24 Brazil Serie A | Gremio | 2-3 HT 2-0 | Atletico Mineiro |
| 26/11/23 Brazil Serie A | Atletico Mineiro | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Gremio |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 18 | 39 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 19 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 35 |
| 5 | EC Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 31 |
| 7 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 33 | 30 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 29 | 30 |
| 9 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 30 | 30 |
| 10 | Atletico Mineiro | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 27 | 29 |
| 11 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 20 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 25 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 31 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 27 | 25 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 23 |
| 16 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 33 | 22 |
| 17 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 22 |
| 18 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 36 | 22 |
| 19 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 31 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 43 | 10 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Mineiro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 05/08 | EC Juventude Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | EC Juventude Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 27/07 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 31/05 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 28/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Cienciano Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
Gremio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 06/08 | Mirassol Copa do Brasil |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Mirassol Copa do Brasil |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 31/07 | Bolivar Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 26/07 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 24/07 | Bolivar Copa Sudamericana |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Cruzeiro Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/07 | Chapecoense America Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | FC Cascavel America Friendlies |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Mineiro win (53%). Probabilities: Atletico Mineiro 53%, draw 27%, Gremio 20%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Atletico Mineiro 1.68 · Gremio 0.95), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.