Football · Brazil Serie A · 08/08, 21:00
Prediction: Gremio vs Sao Paulo
Team pages: Gremio · Sao Paulo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.53Total
Gremio1.37
Sao Paulo1.17
1X2
Gremio
Draw
Sao Paulo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Gremio
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Sao Paulo
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gremio
2–4
Sao Paulo
(6 last)
- Sao Paulo2-0Gremio
- Gremio2-0Sao Paulo
- Sao Paulo2-1Gremio
- Gremio2-1Sao Paulo
- Sao Paulo1-0Gremio
- Sao Paulo3-0Gremio
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gremio 1485 · Sao Paulo 1469
| Gremio | Draw | Sao Paulo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Market | 40% | 29% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sao Paulo: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gremio | Sao Paulo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.8 | 1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 11/44/44% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 7.3 | 2.8 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.8 | 4.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio 2–0–4 Sao Paulo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/26 Brazil Serie A | Sao Paulo | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Gremio |
| 17/10/25 Brazil Serie A | Gremio | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sao Paulo |
| 18/05/25 Brazil Serie A | Sao Paulo | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Gremio |
| 01/12/24 Brazil Serie A | Gremio | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Sao Paulo |
| 18/07/24 Brazil Serie A | Sao Paulo | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gremio |
| 21/10/23 Brazil Serie A | Sao Paulo | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Gremio |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 18 | 39 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 19 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 25 | 34 |
| 5 | EC Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 30 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 34 | 32 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 20 | 29 |
| 10 | Atletico Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 25 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 28 | 27 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 23 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 31 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 33 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 22 |
| 17 | Gremio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 26 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 31 | 21 |
| 19 | Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 34 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | 10 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gremio | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Corinthians | 1-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gremio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Bolivar Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 26/07 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 24/07 | Bolivar Copa Sudamericana |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Cruzeiro Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/07 | Chapecoense America Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | FC Cascavel America Friendlies |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 27/05 | Torque Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
Sao Paulo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/07 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 01/06 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 27/05 | Boston River Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 20/05 | Millonarios Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 17/05 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 14/05 | EC Juventude Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 08/05 | O'Higgins Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gremio vs Sao Paulo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gremio win (40%). Probabilities: Gremio 40%, draw 29%, Sao Paulo 31%.
How many goals are expected in Gremio vs Sao Paulo?
The model expects 2.53 goals (Gremio 1.37 · Sao Paulo 1.17), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Sao Paulo?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.