Football · Brazil Serie A · 16/08, 23:30
Prediction: Vitoria vs Botafogo
Team pages: Vitoria · Botafogo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
Vitoria1.35
Botafogo1.11
1X2
Vitoria
Draw
Botafogo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Vitoria
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Botafogo
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Vitoria
0–4–2
Botafogo
(6 last)
- Botafogo0-0Vitoria
- Vitoria0-0Botafogo
- Botafogo0-0Vitoria
- Botafogo1-1Vitoria
- Vitoria0-1Botafogo
- Vitoria1-2Botafogo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vitoria 1517 · Botafogo 1557
| Vitoria | Draw | Botafogo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 30% | 30% |
| Market | 41% | 29% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Botafogo (rating 1517 vs 1557).
- H2H favours Botafogo: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vitoria | Botafogo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.4 | 1.9 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.5 | 5.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitoria 0–4–2 Botafogo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 Brazil Serie A | Botafogo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Vitoria |
| 09/11/25 Brazil Serie A | Vitoria | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Botafogo |
| 17/07/25 Brazil Serie A | Botafogo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Vitoria |
| 23/11/24 Brazil Serie A | Botafogo | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Vitoria |
| 12/07/24 Brazil Serie A | Vitoria | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Botafogo |
| 23/05/24 Copa do Brasil | Vitoria | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Botafogo |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 39 | 18 | 42 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 19 | 40 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 35 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 31 | 33 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 33 |
| 7 | Corinthians | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 20 | 32 |
| 8 | Bragantino | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 26 | 22 | 31 |
| 9 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 33 | 30 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 29 | 30 |
| 11 | Atletico Mineiro | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 27 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 25 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 22 | 33 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 27 | 25 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 30 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 23 |
| 17 | Santos | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 29 | 35 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 31 | 22 |
| 19 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 36 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 43 | 10 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vitoria
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 07/08 | Athletico Paranaense Copa do Brasil |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 04/08 | Athletico Paranaense Copa do Brasil |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 30/07 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 27/07 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 24/07 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 17/07 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Fortaleza Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 03/06 | Fortaleza Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
Botafogo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 26/07 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 24/07 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 17/07 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 30/05 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 28/05 | Caracas Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 21/05 | Independiente Petrolero Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 14/05 | Chapecoense Copa do Brasil |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vitoria vs Botafogo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Vitoria win (41%). Probabilities: Vitoria 41%, draw 29%, Botafogo 30%.
How many goals are expected in Vitoria vs Botafogo?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Vitoria 1.35 · Botafogo 1.11), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Botafogo?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.