Football · Brazil Serie A · 26/07, 01:30

Prediction: Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Vasco da Gama1.44

Mirassol1.2

1X2

41% 29% 30%

Vasco da Gama Draw Mirassol

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vasco da Gama 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Mirassol 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Vasco da Gama 0–3 Mirassol (3 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vasco da Gama 1447 · Mirassol 1562

	Vasco da Gama	Draw	Mirassol
Our model	41%	28%	30%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mirassol (rating 1447 vs 1562).
H2H favours Mirassol: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vasco da Gama	Mirassol
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.5	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.40
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.55 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:18 +1’	2.25	3.20	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:18 +1’	2.12	3.40	3.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasco da Gama 0–0–3 Mirassol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/01/26 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	2-1 HT 1-1	Vasco da Gama
02/12/25 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	0-2 HT 0-0	Mirassol
02/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	3-2 HT 0-0	Vasco da Gama

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	18	12	5	1	30	13	41
2	Flamengo	17	10	4	3	31	16	34
3	Fluminense	19	9	5	5	29	24	32
4	Bragantino	19	9	3	7	26	20	30
5	Athletico Paranaense	18	9	3	6	24	18	30
6	EC Bahia	18	8	5	5	27	23	29
7	Coritiba	18	7	5	6	24	24	26
8	Sao Paulo	18	7	4	7	23	20	25
9	Botafogo	18	7	4	7	33	32	25
10	Vitoria	18	7	4	7	22	25	25
11	Atletico Mineiro	18	7	3	8	22	23	24
12	Corinthians	18	6	6	6	18	19	24
13	Cruzeiro	18	6	6	6	24	28	24
14	Internacional	18	5	6	7	21	22	21
15	Santos	19	5	6	8	27	31	21
16	Gremio	19	5	6	8	21	25	21
17	Vasco da Gama	19	5	5	9	22	30	20
18	Mirassol	18	5	4	9	20	25	19
19	Remo	18	4	6	8	21	29	18
20	Chapecoense	18	1	6	11	17	35	9

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vasco da Gama	Mirassol
Atletico Mineiro	0-1 L	1-3 L
Bragantino	0-3 L	2-1 W
Athletico Paranaense	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vasco da Gama (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vasco da Gama

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
31/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
28/05	Barracas Central Copa Sudamericana	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
25/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
21/05	Olimpia Asuncion Copa Sudamericana	1-0	1-3	3	7	L
16/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-4	4	5	L
14/05	Paysandu Copa do Brasil	2-1	2-2	6	4	D
11/05	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
07/05	Audax Italiano Copa Sudamericana	0-1	2-1	6	8	W
03/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-2	6	6	D

Mirassol

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Gremio Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
30/05	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
27/05	Lanus Copa Libertadores	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
24/05	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
20/05	Always Ready Copa Libertadores	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
16/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	6	1	L
14/05	Bragantino Copa do Brasil	1-1	2-1	2	0	W
10/05	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
08/05	LDU Quito Copa Libertadores	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
04/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	1	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vasco da Gama win (41%). Probabilities: Vasco da Gama 41%, draw 29%, Mirassol 30%.

How many goals are expected in Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Vasco da Gama 1.44 · Mirassol 1.2), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.