Football · Brazil Serie A · 25/07, 23:30

Prediction: Santos vs Chapecoense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Santos2.08

Chapecoense0.93

1X2

63% 22% 15%

Santos Draw Chapecoense

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Santos 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Chapecoense 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Santos 4–2 Chapecoense (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santos 1521 · Chapecoense 1501

	Santos	Draw	Chapecoense
Our model	63%	22%	15%
Market	63%	22%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Santos: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santos	Chapecoense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	1.7 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.20

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.05

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:16 +3’	1.48	4.20	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santos 4–0–2 Chapecoense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/01/26 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	4-2 HT 1-1	Santos
17/10/24 Brazil Serie B	Chapecoense	3-2 HT 1-1	Santos
02/07/24 Brazil Serie B	Santos	1-0 HT 0-0	Chapecoense
17/11/21 Brazil Serie A	Santos	2-0 HT 1-0	Chapecoense
01/08/21 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	0-1 HT 0-1	Santos
01/12/19 Brazil Serie A	Santos	2-0 HT 1-0	Chapecoense

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	18	12	5	1	30	13	41
2	Flamengo	17	10	4	3	31	16	34
3	Fluminense	19	9	5	5	29	24	32
4	Bragantino	19	9	3	7	26	20	30
5	Athletico Paranaense	18	9	3	6	24	18	30
6	EC Bahia	18	8	5	5	27	23	29
7	Coritiba	18	7	5	6	24	24	26
8	Sao Paulo	18	7	4	7	23	20	25
9	Botafogo	18	7	4	7	33	32	25
10	Vitoria	18	7	4	7	22	25	25
11	Atletico Mineiro	18	7	3	8	22	23	24
12	Corinthians	18	6	6	6	18	19	24
13	Cruzeiro	18	6	6	6	24	28	24
14	Internacional	18	5	6	7	21	22	21
15	Santos	19	5	6	8	27	31	21
16	Gremio	19	5	6	8	21	25	21
17	Vasco da Gama	19	5	5	9	22	30	20
18	Mirassol	18	5	4	9	20	25	19
19	Remo	18	4	6	8	21	29	18
20	Chapecoense	18	1	6	11	17	35	9

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santos	Chapecoense
Botafogo	1-2 L	2-0 W
Gremio	2-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Chapecoense (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Santos

DWWLDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
04/07	Uniao Sao Joao America Friendlies	0-0	3-0	10	0	W
31/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	1	8	W
27/05	Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana	1-0	3-0	3	6	W
24/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	5	4	L
21/05	San Lorenzo Copa Sudamericana	2-0	2-2	2	6	D
17/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-3	0-3	3	6	L
14/05	Coritiba Copa do Brasil	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
10/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
06/05	Deportivo Recoleta Copa Sudamericana	1-0	1-1	5	5	D

Chapecoense

WLWLDLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	6	1	L
05/07	Gremio America Friendlies	2-0	2-1	3	4	W
07/06	Avai Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste	1-0	3-0	10	6	W
04/06	Avai Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste	0-3	0-3	5	6	L
31/05	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
28/05	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste	1-1	2-2	8	1	D
24/05	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
21/05	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
17/05	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	3	3	L
14/05	Botafogo Copa do Brasil	2-0	2-0	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santos vs Chapecoense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santos win (63%). Probabilities: Santos 63%, draw 22%, Chapecoense 15%.

How many goals are expected in Santos vs Chapecoense?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Santos 2.08 · Chapecoense 0.93), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Santos vs Chapecoense?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.