Football · Brazil Serie A · 09/08, 02:00
Prediction: Botafogo vs Fluminense
Team pages: Botafogo · Fluminense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.28Total
Botafogo1.17
Fluminense1.1
1X2
Botafogo
Draw
Fluminense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Botafogo
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Fluminense
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Botafogo
3–3
Fluminense
(6 last)
- Fluminense1-0Botafogo
- Botafogo0-1Fluminense
- Fluminense2-0Botafogo
- Botafogo2-0Fluminense
- Botafogo2-1Fluminense
- Fluminense0-1Botafogo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Botafogo 1528 · Fluminense 1553
| Botafogo | Draw | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 31% | 33% |
| Market | 37% | 29% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Botafogo | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 1.6 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.5 | 1.9 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo 3–0–3 Fluminense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/26 Brazil Serie A | Fluminense | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Botafogo |
| 02/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Botafogo | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Fluminense |
| 28/09/25 Brazil Serie A | Fluminense | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Botafogo |
| 27/04/25 Brazil Serie A | Botafogo | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Fluminense |
| 30/01/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Botafogo | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Fluminense |
| 21/09/24 Brazil Serie A | Fluminense | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Botafogo |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 18 | 39 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 19 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 25 | 34 |
| 5 | EC Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 30 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 34 | 32 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 20 | 29 |
| 10 | Atletico Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 25 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 28 | 27 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 23 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 31 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 33 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 22 |
| 17 | Gremio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 26 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 31 | 21 |
| 19 | Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 34 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | 10 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Botafogo | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| EC Bahia | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Botafogo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 24/07 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 17/07 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 30/05 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 28/05 | Caracas Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 21/05 | Independiente Petrolero Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 14/05 | Chapecoense Copa do Brasil |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
Fluminense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Vasco da Gama Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/07 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 18/07 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 7 | D |
| 12/07 | EC Bahia America Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 09/07 | Nova Iguacu America Friendlies |
2-1 | 6-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 28/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Copa Libertadores |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 20/05 | Bolivar Copa Libertadores |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Botafogo vs Fluminense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Botafogo win (37%). Probabilities: Botafogo 37%, draw 30%, Fluminense 33%.
How many goals are expected in Botafogo vs Fluminense?
The model expects 2.28 goals (Botafogo 1.17 · Fluminense 1.1), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Fluminense?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.