Football · USA MLS · 26/07, 02:30

Prediction: Minnesota United vs Vancouver Whitecaps

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Minnesota United1.34

Vancouver Whitecaps1.77

1X2

28% 25% 47%

Minnesota United Draw Vancouver Whitecaps

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Minnesota United 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Vancouver Whitecaps 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDDWLWWD

Head-to-head

Minnesota United 1–1–4 Vancouver Whitecaps (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Minnesota United 1506 · Vancouver Whitecaps 1585

	Minnesota United	Draw	Vancouver Whitecaps
Our model	28%	25%	46%
Market	28%	25%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vancouver Whitecaps (rating 1506 vs 1585).
H2H favours Vancouver Whitecaps: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Minnesota United	Vancouver Whitecaps
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	2.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.2	3.4 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.70

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +5’	3.30	3.70	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Minnesota United 1–1–4 Vancouver Whitecaps

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	6-0 HT 4-0	Minnesota United
29/05/25 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	0-0 HT 0-0	Minnesota United
27/04/25 USA MLS	Minnesota United	1-3 HT 0-0	Vancouver Whitecaps
06/10/24 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	0-1 HT 0-1	Minnesota United
04/07/24 USA MLS	Minnesota United	1-3 HT 1-2	Vancouver Whitecaps
07/05/23 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	3-2 HT 1-1	Minnesota United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	14	10	2	2	34	12	32
2	San Jose Earthquakes	15	10	2	3	34	15	32
3	Los Angeles FC	16	8	3	5	27	17	27
4	Real Salt Lake	14	8	2	4	26	19	26
5	FC Dallas	15	7	4	4	30	22	25
6	Seattle Sounders	14	7	3	4	18	16	24
7	Houston Dynamo	14	7	1	6	19	23	22
8	Minnesota United	15	6	4	5	18	22	22
9	LA Galaxy	16	5	5	6	22	25	20
10	St. Louis City SC	15	5	4	6	19	22	19
11	Portland Timbers	15	5	2	8	27	29	17
12	San Diego FC	15	4	5	6	30	27	17
13	Colorado Rapids	15	5	1	9	25	24	16
14	Austin FC	15	3	5	7	19	31	14
15	Sporting Kansas City	15	3	2	10	16	39	11

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Minnesota United	Vancouver Whitecaps
Colorado Rapids	0-1 L	3-1 W
San Jose Earthquakes	2-4 L	1-1 D
FC Dallas	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Vancouver Whitecaps (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Minnesota United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
17/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
14/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	5	9	L
11/05	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	2-2	3	7	D
03/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	3-2	6	4	W
29/04	San Jose Earthquakes USA US Open Cup	0-1	2-4	8	3	L
25/04	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	11	4	L
23/04	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
19/04	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
15/04	Sacramento Republic USA US Open Cup	0-0	0-0	6	6	D

Vancouver Whitecaps

WWWDDWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/07	Cavalry FC Canada Championships	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
09/07	Cavalry FC Canada Championships	1-1	4-1	7	4	W
24/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	2-0	4-2	4	6	W
17/05	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
14/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-1	3-2	6	7	W
10/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
03/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
26/04	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	2-1	3-1	8	2	W
18/04	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	3-0	3-0	6	3	W
12/04	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	2-0	12	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Minnesota United vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Vancouver Whitecaps win (47%). Probabilities: Minnesota United 28%, draw 25%, Vancouver Whitecaps 47%.

How many goals are expected in Minnesota United vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Minnesota United 1.34 · Vancouver Whitecaps 1.77), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Minnesota United vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.