Football · USA MLS · 02/08, 02:30

Prediction: Minnesota United vs San Diego FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Minnesota United1.75

San Diego FC1.28

1X2

48% 25% 27%

Minnesota United Draw San Diego FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Minnesota United 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWDLLDLD

San Diego FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDDWDLLW

Head-to-head

Minnesota United 2–2 San Diego FC (4 last)

San Diego FC1-2Minnesota United
San Diego FC1-0Minnesota United
San Diego FC1-3Minnesota United
Minnesota United2-4San Diego FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Minnesota United 1485 · San Diego FC 1455

	Minnesota United	Draw	San Diego FC
Our model	47%	26%	27%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Minnesota United	San Diego FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.4	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	3.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.80

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 1.96
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.94 ★
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +8’	1.95	3.80	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:20	1.96	3.94	3.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Minnesota United 2–0–2 San Diego FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 USA MLS	San Diego FC	1-2 HT 1-2	Minnesota United
25/11/25 USA MLS	San Diego FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Minnesota United
14/09/25 USA MLS	San Diego FC	1-3 HT 0-0	Minnesota United
15/06/25 USA MLS	Minnesota United	2-4 HT 2-1	San Diego FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	16	10	3	3	37	16	33
2	Los Angeles FC	18	10	3	5	34	18	33
3	San Jose Earthquakes	17	10	3	4	35	20	33
4	Real Salt Lake	16	8	2	6	28	24	26
5	Houston Dynamo	16	8	2	6	23	24	26
6	FC Dallas	17	7	5	5	32	25	26
7	St. Louis City SC	17	7	4	6	23	23	25
8	Seattle Sounders	16	7	3	6	19	20	24
9	Minnesota United	17	6	5	6	19	24	23
10	Portland Timbers	17	6	3	8	31	32	21
11	LA Galaxy	18	5	6	7	24	29	21
12	San Diego FC	17	5	5	7	31	28	20
13	Colorado Rapids	17	6	1	10	26	25	19
14	Austin FC	17	4	5	8	22	35	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	17	4	2	11	18	44	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Minnesota United	San Diego FC
Vancouver Whitecaps	0-0 D	2-4 L
Real Salt Lake	1-1 D	2-4 L
Colorado Rapids	0-1 L	0-1 L
Austin FC	2-2 D	5-0 W
Los Angeles FC	0-1 L	2-2 D
FC Dallas	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Minnesota United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
23/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
24/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
17/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
14/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	5	9	L
11/05	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	2-2	3	7	D
03/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	3-2	6	4	W
29/04	San Jose Earthquakes USA US Open Cup	0-1	2-4	8	3	L
25/04	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	11	4	L
23/04	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	5	W

San Diego FC

LLLDDWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
23/07	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
24/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-2	2-4	2	6	L
17/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	3-3	7	4	D
14/05	Austin FC USA MLS	2-0	5-0	6	1	W
10/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
03/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
26/04	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
23/04	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
19/04	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-4	2-4	8	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Minnesota United vs San Diego FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Minnesota United win (48%). Probabilities: Minnesota United 48%, draw 25%, San Diego FC 27%.

How many goals are expected in Minnesota United vs San Diego FC?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Minnesota United 1.75 · San Diego FC 1.28), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Minnesota United vs San Diego FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.