Football · USA MLS · 02/08, 02:30

Prediction: St. Louis City SC vs Real Salt Lake

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

St. Louis City SC1.78

Real Salt Lake1.49

1X2

43% 25% 31%

St. Louis City SC Draw Real Salt Lake

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

St. Louis City SC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Real Salt Lake 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

St. Louis City SC 0–3–3 Real Salt Lake (6 last)

St. Louis City SC2-2Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake3-2St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC1-1Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake3-1St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC1-1Real Salt Lake
St. Louis City SC1-3Real Salt Lake

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St. Louis City SC 1561 · Real Salt Lake 1499

	St. Louis City SC	Draw	Real Salt Lake
Our model	44%	25%	31%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St. Louis City SC (rating 1561 vs 1499).
H2H favours Real Salt Lake: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St. Louis City SC	Real Salt Lake
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.9	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.6	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.77 ★
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.13

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:16 +3’	2.15	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:20	2.15	3.77	3.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · St. Louis City SC 0–3–3 Real Salt Lake

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/10/25 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	2-2 HT 1-2	Real Salt Lake
06/07/25 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	3-2 HT 2-0	St. Louis City SC
05/02/25 World Club Friendlies	St. Louis City SC	1-1	Real Salt Lake
31/03/24 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	3-1 HT 0-1	St. Louis City SC
25/02/24 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	1-1 HT 0-0	Real Salt Lake
22/06/23 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	1-3 HT 1-1	Real Salt Lake

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	16	10	3	3	37	16	33
2	Los Angeles FC	18	10	3	5	34	18	33
3	San Jose Earthquakes	17	10	3	4	35	20	33
4	Real Salt Lake	16	8	2	6	28	24	26
5	Houston Dynamo	16	8	2	6	23	24	26
6	FC Dallas	17	7	5	5	32	25	26
7	St. Louis City SC	17	7	4	6	23	23	25
8	Seattle Sounders	16	7	3	6	19	20	24
9	Minnesota United	17	6	5	6	19	24	23
10	Portland Timbers	17	6	3	8	31	32	21
11	LA Galaxy	18	5	6	7	24	29	21
12	San Diego FC	17	5	5	7	31	28	20
13	Colorado Rapids	17	6	1	10	26	25	19
14	Austin FC	17	4	5	8	22	35	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	17	4	2	11	18	44	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St. Louis City SC	Real Salt Lake
Colorado Rapids	1-0 W	2-1 W
LA Galaxy	3-1 W	1-2 L
Houston Dynamo	2-2 D	3-0 W
Los Angeles FC	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: St. Louis City SC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

St. Louis City SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
23/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
17/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-1	3-2	5	3	W
23/05	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
20/05	Houston Dynamo USA US Open Cup	1-2	2-2	3	8	D
17/05	DC United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	8	8	D
14/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
10/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	1-0	1-0	1	10	W
03/05	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
30/04	Chicago Fire USA US Open Cup	0-0	2-1	5	5	W

Real Salt Lake

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
23/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	12	0	L
16/07	Burnley World Club Friendlies	1-0	4-1	4	4	W
24/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
17/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
14/05	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	3-0	4	1	W
10/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
02/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-0	2-0	6	3	W
27/04	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-1	1-2	0	8	L
23/04	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St. Louis City SC vs Real Salt Lake?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St. Louis City SC win (43%). Probabilities: St. Louis City SC 43%, draw 25%, Real Salt Lake 31%.

How many goals are expected in St. Louis City SC vs Real Salt Lake?

The model expects 3.26 goals (St. Louis City SC 1.78 · Real Salt Lake 1.49), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in St. Louis City SC vs Real Salt Lake?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.