Football · USA MLS · 02/08, 04:30

Prediction: Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Portland Timbers1.68

Seattle Sounders1.54

1X2

40% 25% 34%

Portland Timbers Draw Seattle Sounders

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Portland Timbers 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLLWDW

Seattle Sounders 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWDDWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Portland Timbers 2–2–2 Seattle Sounders (6 last)

Seattle Sounders1-5Portland Timbers
Seattle Sounders1-0Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers1-1Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders1-1Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers1-0Seattle Sounders
Portland Timbers1-2Seattle Sounders

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portland Timbers 1503 · Seattle Sounders 1459

	Portland Timbers	Draw	Seattle Sounders
Our model	40%	25%	34%
Market	40%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portland Timbers (rating 1503 vs 1459).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portland Timbers	Seattle Sounders
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.3	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.1	2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.70

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.91 ★
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.82

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:18 +2’	2.30	3.70	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +1’	2.28	3.91	2.82

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Timbers 2–2–2 Seattle Sounders

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/07/26 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	1-5 HT 0-1	Portland Timbers
05/10/25 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	1-0 HT 1-0	Portland Timbers
18/05/25 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	1-1 HT 1-1	Seattle Sounders
20/10/24 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	1-1 HT 1-0	Portland Timbers
01/09/24 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	1-0 HT 0-0	Seattle Sounders
12/05/24 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	1-2 HT 1-1	Seattle Sounders

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	16	10	3	3	37	16	33
2	Los Angeles FC	18	10	3	5	34	18	33
3	San Jose Earthquakes	17	10	3	4	35	20	33
4	Real Salt Lake	16	8	2	6	28	24	26
5	Houston Dynamo	16	8	2	6	23	24	26
6	FC Dallas	17	7	5	5	32	25	26
7	St. Louis City SC	17	7	4	6	23	23	25
8	Seattle Sounders	16	7	3	6	19	20	24
9	Minnesota United	17	6	5	6	19	24	23
10	Portland Timbers	17	6	3	8	31	32	21
11	LA Galaxy	18	5	6	7	24	29	21
12	San Diego FC	17	5	5	7	31	28	20
13	Colorado Rapids	17	6	1	10	26	25	19
14	Austin FC	17	4	5	8	22	35	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	17	4	2	11	18	44	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portland Timbers	Seattle Sounders
FC Dallas	2-2 D	2-1 W
San Jose Earthquakes	1-3 L	3-2 W
Sporting Kansas City	6-0 W	1-1 D
San Diego FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portland Timbers

LWLWDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	2-1	14	4	W
23/07	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
17/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	5-1	8	2	W
24/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-3	1-3	4	5	L
18/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
14/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-2	2-2	9	3	D
10/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	4-0	6-0	4	6	W
02/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
26/04	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
19/04	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-1	0-2	4	2	L

Seattle Sounders

WWDDWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	0-1	1	1	L
23/07	Austin FC USA MLS	1-1	1-3	4	5	L
17/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-1	1-5	2	2	L
25/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
17/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
14/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	3-2	9	2	W
10/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
02/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
26/04	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
19/04	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	2-0	4-1	5	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portland Timbers win (40%). Probabilities: Portland Timbers 40%, draw 25%, Seattle Sounders 34%.

How many goals are expected in Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Portland Timbers 1.68 · Seattle Sounders 1.54), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.